SunSirs: Ethylene Glycol Prices Weakened in October, and Are Expected to Weaken Initially Before Strengthening in November

Ethylene glycol prices shifted downward in October 

Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall in October, with the price center shifting downwards. According to data from SunSirs, as of October 31, the average price of domestic oil-based ethylene glycol was 4,220.83 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.74% compared to the average price of 4,385 RMB/ton on October 1.

Regarding ethylene glycol at ports, the basis for the port ethylene glycol spot contract (minimum 500 tons) was affected by the delivery factor of the Yangtze River International Warehouse, resulting in weakened market trading sentiment. However, some companies showed a strong willingness to hold their spot inventory, leading to a near-term stronger and far-term weaker basis. This week's contract basis trading range was +84 to +88; by the close of trading, the basis for next week's contract was quoted at +75 to +77, and the basis for the November contract was quoted at +72 to +74.

The domestic spot price for coal-based polyester grade ethylene glycol (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) was 3,770-3,880 RMB/ton for a full truckload.

Regarding the international ethylene glycol market, as of October 31st, recent shipments were negotiated at around $487-489/ton.

The main reasons for the decline in ethylene glycol prices in October:

The decline in ethylene glycol prices in October 2025 was the result of a combination of factors, primarily including increased supply, weak demand, and the macroeconomic environment, as detailed below:

Supply Side

Domestic production capacity continued to expand: In 2025, the total domestic ethylene glycol production capacity exceeded 28 million tons. The rapid growth of domestic production capacity had led to a significant increase in supply, intensified market competition, and gradually revealed the pressure of oversupply, which had pushed prices down.

High plant operating rates: Domestic ethylene glycol plants had high operating rates, with the total domestic load rising to 77% in October, of which the syngas-based load reached 81.89%, and the market supply was sufficient.

Increased imports: October imports were estimated at 650,000 tons, with the concentrated arrival of overseas goods further increasing supply pressure in the domestic market.

Demand side

Downstream polyester demand growth fell short of expectations: The main downstream industry for ethylene glycol was the polyester industry. Although some polyester plants had restarted, overall demand growth was limited. Orders from the weaving sector were relatively weak, and inventories of products such as filament and staple fiber had accumulated, leading to weak demand for ethylene glycol from polyester plants.

Downstream end-user companies were not keen on stockpiling: They were cautious about market expectations and had little willingness to stockpile, which made it difficult to effectively release market demand and provided strong support for prices.

In terms of macroeconomics and market sentiment: Uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade negotiations had triggered market panic, impacting investor confidence in the commodity market. Crude oil prices had weakened as a result, putting pressure on the energy and chemical sector as a whole, and dragging down ethylene glycol prices.

Cose side

The continued decline in crude oil prices had significantly narrowed the losses of integrated naphtha-to-ethylene glycol production, weakening cost support and putting downward pressure on ethylene glycol prices.

Ethylene Glycol Market Outlook in November

Yulong Petrochemical's new 800,000-ton unit went into operation in September, and Ningxia Changyi and other capacity units were planned to start trial operation in the fourth quarter. The new capacity is expected to bring supply pressure, while there was not much capacity under maintenance, so the overall supply pressure was relatively large. The polyester industry was temporarily operating at a high rate. As the peak season is nearing its end, downstream end-of-season weaving demand is expected to weaken, and subsequent demand is expected to be relatively weak

Ethylene glycol port inventories remained relatively low. Prices had fallen significantly and had shown signs of stabilizing. The market outlook is to wait and see how strong the bullish support is. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to bottom out and rebound in November, with a high probability of an initial weakness followed by a strength..

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