SunSirs: Boosted by the Demand for Inventory Replenishment, the Downward Space for Ethylene Glycol Prices Will Narrow in the Short Term

Price trend

Ethylene glycol prices softened in September. According to data from SunSirs, as of September 28, the average price of domestic oil-based ethylene glycol was 4,390 RMB/ton, down 2.12% from the average price of 4,485 RMB/ton on September 1.

Regarding ethylene glycol at the port, the basis for the September 26, 2025, spot contract (minimum order of 500 tons) was weak. The intraday basis range for contracts before September 30 was +60 to +73. After the market closed, the basis for contracts before September 30 was quoted at +63, while the basis for contracts after October was quoted at +69 to +71. The intraday trading range for this week's contracts was 4,285-4,312 RMB/ton. On September 28, some traders offered a single price of 4,307 RMB/ton.

Domestic coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol spot prices (bulk, tax included, self-pickep) ranged from 3,930 to 4,150 RMB/ton per truckload.

As of September 24th, recent negotiated prices for ethylene glycol in the overseas market were around $510/ton.

Fundamentals Overview

Supply Increased, Inventories Rose

Port Inventory Forecast: A total of 228,000 tons of ethylene glycol is scheduled to arrive at East China ports next week. This relatively high volume wa due to the large number of large Canadian and Saudi Arabian ships arriving during the National Day holiday. If these ships land, there is expected to be a buildup of inventory. As of September 26, ethylene glycol inventories at East China ports stood at approximately 430,000 tons, an increase of approximately 30,000 tons from the previous week. This included 200,000 tons at Zhangjiagang, 90,000 tons at Taicang, 64,000 tons at Jiangyin, 30,000 tons at Ningbo, 31,000 tons at Changshu and Nantong, and 15,000 tons at Changzhou.

Changes on the supply side: A plant in Jiangsu is scheduled to restart in early October. During the holiday, the co-production plant will adjust EO/EG products. Domestic supply will increase, and MEG will most likely enter an inventory accumulation cycle in October.

Downstream demand performed well

Downstream performance: Domestic polyester production capacity was 88.94 million tons (from September 1, 2025). Polyester production and sales improved last week, and POY inventory dropped to two weeks, but demand was mostly speculative feedback from terminals.

Market outlook

As the holiday approaching, there was a strong demand for pre-holiday stocking, and downstream polyester factories had a low-level restocking demand; however, the port inventory rebounded, and the news of new equipment coming into production suppressed ethylene glycol prices; boosted by the pre-holiday restocking demand, ethylene glycol prices are expected to have less room for decline in the near future.

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