SunSirs: Demand Was Weak, and the Toluene Market Stabilized Firstly and Then Fell in August

Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the toluene market experienced a volatile decline in August 2025. From August 1 to 29, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5,570 RMB/ton to 5,440 RMB/ton, a 2.33% drop within the period.

Analysis review

Mid-to-early August: The toluene market experienced narrow fluctuations during this period, with overall volatility remaining relatively low. In the Shandong market, some companies temporarily withheld exports for their own use, while exporters primarily relied on pre-sales. Refinery quotes were generally stable. The East China market experienced a mix of negative and positive factors, maintaining a stable performance amidst a supply-demand dynamic. While supply in South China remained slightly tight, weaker crude oil prices weighed on market sentiment, resulting in a generally stable market.

Late August: Due to poor sales at the end of the month in Shandong, listed prices continued to decline, but downstream purchasing intentions remained low and weak. Demand remained weak overall. Although upstream suppliers proactively lowered prices, downstream suppliers were less enthusiastic about entering the market, resulting in an overall downward market and limited negotiations.

Cost: As of the 26th, the October contract for U.S. WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.25 per barrel, and the October contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.22 per barrel. Crude oil prices have been volatile during this round of price adjustments. OPEC+ announced a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking the organization's exit from its planned production cuts of over 2.2 million barrels per day a year ahead of schedule, negative news for the oil market. Furthermore, tensions in Europe and the resulting peace talks have weakened geopolitical supply risks. Negative global macroeconomic data, coupled with expectations of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, have made it difficult for the crude oil market to maintain positive momentum.

Supply:

Sinopec's toluene operations were operating normally, with stable production and production primarily for self-use. Production and sales remain stable. As of August 29th, the East China company quoted 5,450 RMB/ton, the North China company 5,300 RMB/ton, the South China company 5,550-5,600 RMB/ton, and the Central China company 5,550 RMB/ton.

On the Demand Side:

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of August 29, 2025, the price of paraxylene at Sinopec Sales Company remained stable at 7,200 RMB/ton. This price applied to East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, with sales normal. This represented a 50 RMB/ton decrease from the July 30th price. As of August 28, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was $822-824/ton FOB Korea and $847-849/ton CFR China, a 19 RMB/ton decrease from July 30th.

Market outlook

The toluene market has been generally weak recently, with a strong supply-demand dynamic. With some toluene plants resuming operations, market supply has recently eased. With the traditional peak season approaching (September and October), downstream stocking requirements are expected to increase. In the short term, the toluene market is expected to weaken due to the easing supply. In the long term, peak season demand may drive an upward trend in the market. Focus will be on crude oil trends and the operation of downstream companies.

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