SunSirs: Crude Oil Prices Rebounded, and the Toluene Market Rose

Price trend:

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the toluene market fluctuated upwards from November 10th to November 17th, 2025. The benchmark price for toluene was 5,240 RMB/ton on November 10th and 5,330 RMB/ton on November 17th, an increase of 1.72%. The domestic toluene market saw a volatile upward trend during this period. Rising crude oil prices improved market sentiment, leading to widespread price increases from major refineries. Downstream chemical and oil blending industries purchased on an as-needed basis. Prices in East and South China markets saw slight increases, and market negotiations were relatively positive. Overall, the toluene market remained stable with a slight upward bias this cycle.

Market Analysis

Cost side:

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of November 14th, the settlement price of the December contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $60.09 per barrel. The settlement price of the January contract for Brent crude oil futures was $64.39 per barrel.

Supply side:

Sinopec's toluene plants were operating normally, with stable production. Most of the product was for internal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of November 17th, the price quoted by the East China branch was 5,400 RMB/ton, the North China branch was 5,250-5,350 RMB/ton, the South China branch was 5,400-5,500 RMB/ton, and the Central China branch was 5,450 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

On November 17th, Sinopec Sales Company maintained its paraxylene price at RMB 6,800/ton. This price was applied across East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, and sales were normal. As of November 14th, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was USD 806-808/ton FOB Korea and USD 831-833/ton CFR China.

Market Forecast:

The recent slight recovery in the crude oil market improved the sentiment in the spot market. From a supply and demand perspective, there were little changes in the market recently. Major refineries had generally raised their ex-factory prices, and the overall market sentiment was acceptable, with factories maintaining a strong willingness to hold prices. Demand remained primarily for immediate needs, with restocking occurring only as needed. Overall, the toluene market had shown a stable to slightly stronger performance, and driven by rising crude oil prices, it is expected to maintain a stable to stronger trend in the short term.

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