SunSirs: Supply and Demand Were Weak, and the Toluene Market Saw a Narrow Range of Adjustments

Price trend:

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the toluene market fluctuated upwards from November 17th to November 24th, 2025. The benchmark price for toluene was 5,330 RMB/ton on November 17th and 5,370 RMB/ton on November 24th, an increase of 0.75%. The domestic toluene market saw a slight increase during this period. Supply remained largely unchanged, with overall supply relatively stable. Demand continued to be based on immediate needs for restocking, with stable demand from the oil blending and chemical industries. Crude oil prices weakened slightly recently, slightly impacting market sentiment. Overall, the toluene market saw little change during the week, with a wait-and-see approach prevailing.

Market Analysis

From a cost perspective: According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of November 21st, the settlement price of the January contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $58.06 per barrel. The settlement price of the February contract for Brent crude oil futures was $61.94 per barrel. During this period, OPEC+ announced a new round of production increases, but the market remained concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. Regional tensions eased somewhat, and weakening US demand, coupled with the drag from US tariffs on global economic and demand expectations, led to a slight decline in international oil prices.

Supply side:

Sinopec's toluene plants were operating normally, with stable production. Most of the product is for internal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of November 24th, the price quoted by the East China plant was 5,400 RMB/ton, the North China plant was 5,250-5,350 RMB/ton, the South China plant was 5,400-5,500 RMB/ton, and the Central China plant was 5,450 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

On November 24th, Sinopec Sales Company maintained its paraxylene price at 6,800 RMB/ton. This price was applied in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, with normal sales, unchanged from November 17th. As of November 21st, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was $791-793/ton FOB Korea and $816-818/ton CFR China, a decrease of $15/ton from November 14th.

Market Forecast:

The recent slight weakening of the crude oil market dragged down the sentiment in the spot market. From a supply and demand perspective, there were little changes in the market recently. Major refineries generally lowered their ex-factory prices slightly at the beginning of the week, and the overall market sentiment was acceptable. Demand remained primarily based on immediate needs, with restocking occurring only as required. Overall, the toluene market was relatively stable recently, and is expected to maintain a stable to slightly weaker trend in the short term due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

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