SunSirs: Demand Fluctuated, 1,3-Butadiene Market Saw a Volatile Rise in August

Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market experienced a volatile upward trend in August 2025. From August 1 to 29, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market price rose from 9,050 RMB/ton to 9,283.33 RMB/ton, a 2.58% increase over the period.

Analysis review

Early August: The 1,3-butadiene market saw relatively volatile trading this cycle, with slight increases. On the supply side, some domestic plants restarted, while others were undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in supply. Shandong plants were temporarily not exporting, leaving overall supply tight. On the demand side, the early-week price decline attracted some downstream buyers to restock at low prices, but this was a temporary surge, and overall demand remained relatively rigid, resulting in limited support from the demand side.

Late August: The market experienced a period of volatility. Starting mid-month, spot market sentiment began to improve, buoyed by rising downstream markets. Major domestic refineries raised their ex-factory prices, leading to a slight recovery in spot prices. Later in the month, as downstream demand remained constrained, providing limited support, spot prices generally retreated. By the end of the month, the 1,3-butadiene market saw a period of volatility, buoyed by stronger synthetic rubber and favorable supply and demand conditions. As of August 28, delivered prices in central Shandong were between 9,550 and 9,630 RMB/ton.

Cost: As of the 26th, the October contract for U.S. WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.25 per barrel, and the October contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.22 per barrel. Crude oil prices was volatile during this round of price adjustments. OPEC+ announced a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking the organization's exit from its planned production cuts of over 2.2 million barrels per day a year ahead of schedule, negative news for the oil market. Furthermore, tensions in Europe and the resulting peace talks had weakened geopolitical supply risks. Negative global macroeconomic data, coupled with expectations of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, made it difficult for the crude oil market to maintain positive momentum.

On the supply side, Sinopec's 1,3-butadiene sales companies listed a price of 9,500 RMB/ton as of the 29th, a 100 RMB/ton increase from the same period last month. The domestic 1,3-butadiene industry's overall operating rate remained relatively stable, with overall supply remaining stable.

Fushun Petrochemical's 160,000 ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally. It was shut down for maintenance starting August 14th, with no plans for export. It is expected to restart in October.

Shenghong Refining and Chemical's 200,000 ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with a price increase of 100 RMB/ton to 9,400 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's 90,000 ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with a price increase of 100 RMB/ton to 9,350 RMB/ton.

On the demand side, the market for BR saw a slight increase in August. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of August 28, the price of BR in East China was 12,200 RMB/ton, up 2.01% from 11,960 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material 1,3-butadiene fluctuated upward, shifting the cost center of BR upward. BR production runs fluctuated slightly, limiting supply pressure. Downstream tire production runs saw a slight increase, primarily supporting demand for BR. As of August 28, the mainstream price of BR in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangzi regions of East China was 11,900 to 12,400 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

The supply side has performed well recently, showing a slight overall easing, with limited impact. On the demand side, the synthetic rubber market has strengthened overall, with good downstream support. With this demand support, the 1,3-butadiene market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in the short term.

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