SunSirs: Price Trend of Butadiene in 2026

The price range of butadiene in the first half of 2025 is expected to be between 6,750 and 12,750 yuan/ton, with the high point occurring in late January and the low point in early November. As of mid-December, the average price of butadiene in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets in 2025 is expected to be around 9,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 17% compared to last year.

Looking back at the market trend of butadiene so far in 2025, although the demand increment in the East China region is greater than the supply increment, the inter-regional flow of goods only appears temporarily due to the narrowing of price differences, the overall market price of butadiene still maintains a fluctuating downward trend, and the price focus of the year is lower than the average price of the past ten years. Looking forward to 2026, it is expected that the price focus of butadiene may continue to decline, and the whole year may show a pattern of first rising and then falling.

In 2025, the domestic butadiene market price fluctuated downward, mainly due to the supply and demand and macro double impact: the global new equipment commissioning and sufficient imports led to a loose supply, while the tense trade situation in April caused a sharp decline in prices. Although the equipment shutdown in May once boosted the rebound, the demand support was weak, and the market as a whole was under pressure. The price range of butadiene from January to mid-December 2025 was 6750-12750 yuan/ton, with the high point appearing in late January and the low point appearing in early November. As of mid-December, the average price of butadiene in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market in 2025 was about 9665 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 17% compared to last year.

From the perspective of regional price differences, by 2025, due to the limited supply increase in the East China region, but the supply gap is increasing, the market price difference between Shandong and the East China region will narrow. Under normal circumstances, the market price in Shandong is about 200 yuan/ton higher than that in the East China region, but according to the data from January to October 2025, the market price in Shandong is only about 100 yuan/ton higher than that in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang region. There is very little cargo from the East China ports flowing into the Shandong market throughout the year, and only in January, May and September is there a significant increase in imported cargo from the Jiangsu and Zhejiang region. With a relatively sufficient supply of marketable cargo, a small portion of cargo is supplemented to the Shandong market, and in other time periods, most of the cargo from the Jiangsu and Zhejiang region is digested within the region, and there is very little cargo circulation between regions.

Looking ahead to the butadiene market in 2026, overall, it is expected that the price focus will likely decline compared to 2025. Breaking it down by stages, considering that new unit capacity release in the first half of 2026 may be relatively limited, and factors such as some units being inspected in the second quarter, the price focus of butadiene in the first half of 2026 may be relatively high, especially in the second quarter. However, in the second half of 2026, as new butadiene capacity is normally released, the support from the supply side may weaken, and the average price level in the second half may be lower than in the first half, and the price trend of butadiene for the whole year may maintain an upward trend followed by a fluctuating decline.

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