SunSirs: With Strengthening Fundamentals, the 1,3-Butadiene Market Was Trending Upwards

Price trend:

According to the commodity price analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market fluctuated upwards during this period. From December 1st to December 15th, 2025, the price of 1,3-butadiene increased from 6,983.33 RMB/ton to 7,400 RMB/ton, a rise of 5.97%. The domestic 1,3-butadiene market showed an upward trend during this period, with a strong market performance recently. This was influenced by increased willingness of suppliers to maintain high prices and the upward trend in international market prices. As of December 15, low-priced 1,3-butadiene sources were difficult to find in the domestic market. The recent strong performance of downstream synthetic rubber futures, coupled with high capacity utilization rates of major downstream products such as BR and SBR, and robust purchasing demand, provided solid fundamental support for the 1,3-butadiene market, driving the price of 1,3-butadiene to fluctuate upwards.

Market Analysis

Cost side: According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, as of December 12th, the settlement price of the January contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $57.44 per barrel. The settlement price of the February contract for Brent crude oil futures was $61.12 per barrel. During this period, crude oil prices initially fell before rising. At the beginning of the period, regional tensions eased, and coupled with weakening US demand and the impact of US tariffs on global economic and demand expectations, international oil prices were low. Later, OPEC+ oil-producing countries temporarily suspended production increases, and the prospects for a peace agreement in the region became uncertain, leading to an increase in crude oil prices due to geopolitical factors.

Supply side: Sinopec's various sales companies were quoting 1,3-butadiene at 7,350 RMB/ton, an increase of 150 RMB/ton.

Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 200,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with a price increase of 200 RMB/ton, at 7,500 RMB/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with a base price of 7,150 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's Lianyungang Petrochemical's 90,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with a price increase of 100 RMB/ton, at 7,400 RMB/ton.

Demand Side: According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of December 15th, the price of poly1,3-butadiene rubber in East China has risen.  The domestic synthetic rubber futures market has been fluctuating upwards recently, with some traders slightly increasing their offers by 50-100 RMB/ton. As of December 15, the mainstream price for Daqing, Yangzi, and Qilu poly1,3-butadiene rubber was 10,800-11,200 RMB/ton; some private brands were quoted at around 10,600-10,800 RMB/ton. AS of December 15, there was a significant price difference between 1,3-butadiene and synthetic rubber. The downstream BR capacity utilization rate had previously risen to a year-high of 76%, and the SBR capacity utilization rate had also increased to over 80%. The downstream industries were operating steadily with reasonable profit margins, which provides effective support for the demand for 1,3-butadiene.

Market Outlook

Overall, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market is expected to continue its stronger and volatile trend in the short term. Driven by positive fundamentals, the spot market is expected to have some further upside potential in the short term. Going forward, two key variables need to be closely monitored: firstly, the actual market transaction volume, and secondly, the arrival pace of imported goods and the subsequent trend of synthetic rubber futures.

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