According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of November 20 was 6,750.00 RMB/ ton (tax included), 0.15% lower than the price of 6,760.00 RMB/ ton on November 14.
On November 20, the fuel oil commodity index was 136.71, unchanged from the previous day, 0.15% lower than the cycle's highest point of 136.91 (2022-11-17), and 196.68% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
The international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to SunSirs, as of November 20, the self raised low sulfur price of 180CST fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6,700 RMB/ ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120CST fuel oil was 6,800 RMB/ ton; The price of 180CST self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6,750 RMB/ ton, and the price of 120CST self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6,850 RMB/ ton.
The international crude oil price fell in shock, and the Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over and was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The slowing demand of China, the largest oil importer, also caused widespread concern among investors, and the oil market fell sharply. In addition, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices.
Singapore's fuel oil inventory fell, supporting fuel oil prices. It is reported that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week of November 16, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore had dropped by 303,000 barrels to a two-week low of 21.168 million barrels. Singapore's medium distillate oil inventory fell 376000 barrels to a two-week low of 6.898 million barrels. Singapore's light distillate oil inventory fell 352,000 barrels to 13.166 million barrels, a nearly seven month low.
The decline of international crude oil price is bad for the domestic ship fuel market. However, the cost of the ship fuel market is strong at present, the ship fuel resources are relatively tight, and the deal is just in demand. The ship fuel market is generally stable in the near future. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6,700-6,800 RMB/ ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6,800-6,900 RMB/ ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.
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