Price trend
In November 2019, the hydrogenated benzene market rose. The ex factory price in North China was 5000 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 5250 RMB/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.96%.
On November 30, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 57.95, unchanged from the previous day, down 43.19% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 30.05% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).
Analysis review
Domestic market: in the first half of November, affected by the poor delivery of pure benzene market, the overall trend of Benzol industry chain declined, and the market price decreased by 100 RMB/ton compared with the previous period. With the lower of the downstream products such as styrene and aniline, the resistance to high prices in the downstream increased, and the firm price of manufacturers was weak, and high-end transactions in the market were rare. In November, although the number of hydrogenated benzene shutdown and maintenance units increased, the downstream units gradually resumed operation, the demand for hydrogenated benzene increased, and the price of hydrogenated benzene began to rise with the support of favorable fundamentals. By the end of the month, except for the restart of Tangshan Zhongrun hydrobenzene unit, Shandong Jinneng, Hebei minhai and Puyang MaoRMB hydrobenzene units that were overhauled in the early stage have not been started yet. Shandong chenyao temporarily plans to restart on November 23, and Xingtai Xuyang hydrobenzene unit plans to be overhauled to about November 24. The overall operating rate of hydrobenzene is at a low level. The operation rate of downstream styrene, aniline and other devices is relatively high in the near future, which has certain support for the hydrobenzene market. However, the overall trend of downstream products is weak, the profit space of the industrial chain is significantly narrowed, and the upward support for hydrobenzene is limited. Although the price of hydrogenated benzene has increased, the cost pressure of enterprises has not been alleviated, the price difference with Benzol has not been opened to a reasonable price, and most of the profits of enterprises are still below the cost line.
Industrial chain: Crude oil: this month's crude oil overall showed a trend of shock rise, WTI oil price increased by 7.25% compared with last month, Brent oil price increased by 6.04% compared with last month. Negative: trade risk, US crude oil inventory increase. Good: OPEC may continue to extend production reduction, economic data will be good, and crude oil inventory in the United States will be reduced. Pure benzene: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.
Market outlook
The downstream continued weak operation, with limited profit space and price sensitivity. Recently, the start-up of hydrobenzene enterprises increased slightly. The price difference of upstream Benzol market is still lower than the cost line, and it is expected that it will be more difficult for the future hydrobenzene market to rise.
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