1. Price trend

In November 2019, there was a ‘V" trend in the domestic 1# tin ingot market, the average price of domestic market at the beginning of the month is 137,512.50RMB/ton, and at the end of the month is 138,575RMB/ton, up 0.77%.

On November 30, the tin commodity index was 70.59, the same as yesterday, down 29.59% from the highest point of 100.25 (September 5, 2011), and up 64.70% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2. Market analysis

Domestic market: in terms of the futures market this month, SND, SN and spot markets all showed ‘V trends. The futures market fell back from the beginning of the month until it bottomed out around the 20th. The rise at the end of the month is mainly dominated by funds, and the Biqi mine output of Alfa Minh is affected. The company expects that the tin concentrate output in the fourth quarter of 2019 will be lower than the previous expectation of 2,000-2,200 tons. According to customs data, China's refined tin import in October was 170 tons, down 46% month on month, and the inventory in the previous period fell to 2,850 tons. In the spot market, the market inventory in East China and South China was also low. The futures market led the spot market to rebound at the end of the month under the multiple positive boost, and it rose 139,000RMB/ton all the way to a high consolidation. In terms of manufacturers, near the end of the month, the manufacturers were active in shipment, and the downstream procurement was limited. At the end of the month, some manufacturers plan to replenished goods, and there was no significant breakthrough in transaction, so the overall transaction atmosphere was weak.

Industry: U.S. economic data is good. Powell said in the Federal Reserve's beige book that he is optimistic about the U.S. economic expectations. The U.S. stock market has set a new record, but the high U.S. dollar also suppresses the basic metals.

3. Future prospects                                                                           

In December, European and American data sets will have a certain impact on market confidence and the dollar index. In the near future, the fund tolerance is high and the performance is loose. The domestic basic metals may be in the final rush active state before the end of the year. It is expected that the spot tin market will mainly fluctuate in the situation of unchanged supply and demand.

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