- Price Data
According to SunSirs’ data, the average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in August was 1,297.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 1,228.80 RMB/ton at the end of the month, falling by 68.70 RMB/ton in the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of -5.29%. In August, the market price of petroleum coke continued its downward trend.
The Petroleum Coke Commodity Index on August 31 was 95.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 38.58% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 42.88% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)
- Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: Petroleum coke delivery in August was good as a whole. Price was lowered in the early period and inventory was low at the end of the month. The coking unit of Dongming Petrochemical Company started normal operation. Petroleum coke prices fell 30-80 RMB/ton this month.
Industry Chain: Upstream: According to SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was 58.58 dollars per barrel at the beginning of August, and 56.71 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of - 3.19%; Brent crude oil was 65.17 dollars per barrel at the beginning of August, and 61.08 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of - 6.28%. In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated, global risky assets plunged, OPEC and other firm attitudes towards production reduction, as well as U.S. crude oil production and stock boost and other factors affected the trend of international crude oil prices. Downstream: The market of calcined coke and prebaked anode turns into profit. Affected by Typhoon Lichma in mid-August, the market predicts that the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Shandong will decrease (Weiqiao 105,000 tons of production capacity of electrolytic aluminum will be forced to voluntarily stop production), superimposed Xinjiang Xinfa accident, market information factors are obvious, and the price of electrolytic aluminum will rise substantially. According to SunSirs, the average market price of aluminum (99.70) as of August 31 was 14,290.00 RMB/ton.
Industry: According to SunSirs, In August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, one of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling annually, four of which have fallen by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three products falling are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month's average rise and fall was -1.52%.
- Market Forecast
SunSirs’ Petroleum coke analysts predict that in August, petroleum coke market continued its downward trend, downstream carbon enterprises and calcined coke turned into profit and electrolytic aluminum price rose sharply. But due to the decline in aluminum factories start-up rate, petroleum coke market will be depressed; low petroleum coke stocks at the end of the month and concerns about environmental protection and transportation restrictions in September are expected to be refined. Petroleum coke may go up and down in September, with prices ranging from 1,150 to 1,350 RMB/ton.