Macroeconomics

1. [Monetary Policy] The central bank: In 2026, we will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and focusing on expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, preventing and resolving risks, and stabilizing social expectations.

2. [Export Controls] Ministry of Commerce: In accordance with relevant provisions of the "Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China" and other laws and regulations, it has been decided to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan. Exports of all dual-use items to Japanese military users, for military purposes, and to any other end-users that contribute to enhancing Japan's military capabilities are prohibited.

3. [Logistics Industry Prosperity Index] In December 2025, China's Logistics Industry Prosperity Index (LPI) was 52.4%, a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, reaching the highest level of the year. Among the main indicators, the business volume index, equipment utilization rate index, new orders index, capital turnover rate index, and employment index were all in the expansion range and continued to rise month-on-month.

4. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that he expects subsequent economic data to continue to support the policy direction that "interest rate cuts are appropriate." The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. The Fed's policy is clearly restrictive and hindering economic development.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On January 6, local time, Trump announced that the Venezuelan interim government would transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States. This oil will be sold at market prices, and the proceeds will be supervised by Trump to ensure that the funds are used "for the benefit of the Venezuelan and American people." Trump said he had asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to immediately implement this plan. The oil will be loaded onto oil tankers and shipped directly to unloading terminals in the United States. Currently, Venezuela has not yet made an official statement on this matter.

2. [Crude Oil] On January 6, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures February contract was $57.13 per barrel, a decrease of $1.19 or 2.0%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures March contract was $60.70 per barrel, a decrease of $1.06 or 1.7%. 3. [Crude Oil] On January 6th, data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased last week, while refined product inventories increased. API data showed that for the week ending January 2nd, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.77 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.41 million barrels, and distillate fuel inventories increased by 4.93 million barrels. Analysts surveyed had previously expected a crude oil inventory increase of approximately 500,000 barrels, a distillate fuel inventory increase of approximately 2.1 million barrels, and a gasoline inventory increase of approximately 3.2 million barrels.

4. [Fuel Oil] On January 6th, Sinopec Shanghai's 180cst low-sulfur fuel oil ex-works price was 5,000 RMB/ton, a decrease of 200 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The 120cst low-sulfur fuel oil ex-works price was 5,100 RMB/ton, a decrease of 200 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day.

5. [LPG] On January 6th, Qingdao Refining and Chemical's price for civil liquefied petroleum gas increased by 50 RMB/ton to 4,400 RMB/ton. The plant is operating normally, with a daily output of approximately 1,000 tons and controllable inventory.

6. [Coking Coal] On January 6th, the price of coking coal in the Huainan market decreased by 40 RMB/ton. The price of 1/3 coking coal Huaihe #1 refined coal was 1,350 RMB/ton, and Huaihe #2 refined coal was 1,220 RMB/ton, both being ex-works prices, cash payment, including tax.

7. [Petroleum Coke] On January 6th, Qirun Petrochemical's petroleum coke price was 1,730 RMB/ton, an increase of 30 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. Sulfur content is 4.0, with a delayed coking unit capacity of 1.6 million tons/year and a daily output of 700 tons.

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