Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refiners in July was 4,495.75 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and 4,082.50 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 413.25 RMB/ton during the month, a monthly decrease of 9.19%.

On July 31, the petroleum coke commodity index was 317.53, unchanged from previous day, down 22.31% from the highest point of 408.70 points in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 374.70% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to the present)

Analysis review

Products: In July, the price of refined petroleum coke fluctuated downwards, the market transactions were normal, the downstream purchases were mainly on demand, and the market transactions were light.

Upstream: International crude oil prices fluctuated downwards in July. On the one hand, the U.S. EIA inventory data shows that there is an unexpected surge in refined oil products during the peak driving season. In addition, the restart of Nord Stream 1 and the easing of the European energy crisis have brought negative effects to the oil market. Coupled with the European Central Bank's interest rate hike sparked fears of falling demand. It can be seen that the long and short performance of the oil market is quite stalemate. In the context of global central bank interest rate hikes, controlling inflation will bring downward pressure on various risky assets. On the other hand, the peak driving season in the United States in August may come to an end. Judging from the latest data, gasoline inventories in the United States unexpectedly increased in the last week, which also indicates that demand may end ahead of schedule. In addition, the repeated epidemics in Asia, the blockade measures may bring some pressure on the oil market.

Downstream: The price of calcined coke fell in July; the metal silicon market fell and then rose; the downstream electrolytic aluminum market fell first and then rose. As of July 31, the price was 18,633.33 RMB/ton; downstream carbon companies mainly purchased on demand.

Market outlook

The petroleum coke analyst of SunSirs predicts that international crude oil fluctuated and declined in July, and the cost of petroleum coke was limited; This month, local refining companies had high inventories, petroleum coke shipments were under pressure, refineries had cut prices, downstream purchases were active, and some refineries had pulled back their prices. It is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke in the near future may be mainly weak.

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