According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market for locally refined petroleum coke declined in November and rebounded in early December. The mainstream average price of sulfur products in petroleum coke from major domestic refineries was 2,603.25 RMB/ton on December 5th, a decrease of 7.79% compared to 2,823.25 RMB/ton on November 1st.

Cost aspect: The international crude oil market fluctuated and declined in November. In the first half of the year, the market weighed the impact of oversupply risks, and the US government shutdown is expected to end, boosting economic and demand expectations, leading to an increase in international oil prices; In mid month, the United States proposed a new plan to restart peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, reducing concerns about geopolitical risks and causing a decline in international oil prices; Later in the day, it was said that Ukraine had agreed to the new Russia Ukraine peace agreement proposed by the United States. Geopolitical concerns continued to ease, and international oil prices fell.

Supply side: The market for petroleum coke refining in November fell; The market for petroleum coke in the first ten days of the month remained basically stable, with good demand for petroleum coke from downstream enterprises at the beginning of the month, and low inventory in refineries supporting the petroleum coke market; In the middle of the month, the market for locally refined petroleum coke slightly declined, with prices fluctuating. Recently, some refineries have adjusted their indicators, and coke prices have shown significant changes with the indicators. Downstream procurement is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market, and refinery shipments are still acceptable; In the latter half of the year, the petroleum coke market experienced a significant decline, and refinery shipments were hindered. Refineries lowered the price of petroleum coke one after another. In addition, some refineries adjusted their indicators, and the coke price changed significantly with the indicators. Downstream purchasing sentiment increased, which limited support for the petroleum coke market and resulted in poor refinery transactions. The import of petroleum coke in November was mainly based on preliminary orders, with limited new order signings and a slight price drop.

On the demand side, the overall supply of silicon metal decreased in November. Although some facilities in the northern region increased production, the significant reduction in production in the Sichuan Yunnan region led to a decrease in the overall supply of silicon metal. As a result, the pressure on the overall supply side of the market eased in November. The overall enthusiasm for downstream procurement of metallic silicon is average, and the demand performance is still cautious. There is a certain wait-and-see attitude in the downstream, and inquiries for procurement are still mostly at a low level. The overall transmission of demand on the demand side is relatively loose. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.

The mid to high sulfur calcined coke market fell in November, mainly due to the downward adjustment of upstream petroleum coke prices. Downstream procurement remained cautious, and calcined coke enterprises were cautious in their quotations.

The electrolytic aluminum market rose first and then fell in November. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China has reached 44.06 million tons, approaching the policy red line of 45 million tons. The capacity utilization rate is at a high level, and most of the newly added capacity is for replacement projects. For example, Xinjiang's Yalu Electric's 210,000 ton replacement capacity will not be put into operation until the end of 2026, and there will be no new capacity supplementation in December. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

As we enter December, the local refining petroleum coke market will stop falling and rebound. Downstream production enterprises still have demand for petroleum coke, mainly for first-time purchases. In addition, the benchmark price of pre baked anodes purchased by a certain aluminum plant in Shandong will rise in December 2025, which will benefit the petroleum coke market. However, some graphite electrode enterprises are affected by the season and have production stoppages, which may lead to a decrease in petroleum coke procurement. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will mainly fluctuate narrowly in the near future.

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