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SunSirs: Aluminum Prices Bottomed out on July 28
July 29 2022 09:03:29SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on July 28 was 18,373.33 RMB/ton, which was 3.64% lower than the average market price of 19,066.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (7.1), and the price was 5.19% lower than the average market price of 19,090 RMB/ton in the same period last year.

Fundamentals Overview

On the macro level, the Fed's expected interest rate hike has landed, expectations have been released, pessimism has improved, and market risk appetite has returned. However, the continuity remains to be tested, after all, the expectation of a rate hike in September still exists.

On the supply and demand side, production continues to rise, and there is a certain pressure on the supply side. Positive real estate news on Thursday spurred a surge in prices. On the demand side, measures to stabilize the real estate sector are conducive to driving the improvement of aluminum consumption in the real estate sector, but it remains to be seen whether the relevant benefits can be realized and how strongly they can be realized. In the absence of substantial improvement in real estate consumption, the recent cyclical destocking has begun to slow down. On the 28th, the domestic social inventory was 672,000 tons, and the inventory accumulated slightly within the week. The overall inventory is still at a relatively low level. The London Metal Exchange (LME) ) Aluminum inventories decreased by 4,375 tons, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is still there, and it is generally expected that the rebound of aluminum prices will be limited.

On the raw material side, China's alumina port inventory totaled 273,000 tons on the 28th, an increase of 5,000 tons from last week. Among them, Lianyungang Port was 60,000 tons, Qingdao Port was 80,000 tons, Bayuquan Port was 87,000 tons, Panjin Port was 52,000 tons, Jinzhou Port was 38,000 tons, Qinzhou Port was 10,000 tons, Fangcheng Port, Rizhao Port, Longkou Port and Caofeidian had no stock in stock.

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