1. Disk Report

CJ2001 Contract:

Highest  11,110

Lowest  10,790

Closing  10,930

Changes Last Day  -1.44%

Turnover  192,000, +68,600

Position  77,728,-7366

CJ1-5 month spread  45, +75

2. News

According to the introduction of Zhongzao.com, on November 19, the new jujube market in the production area is stable and weak, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. Foreign buyers tend to purchase based on the origin of product. And quality and dryness are favored. The actual transaction depends on quality and the speed of transaction is generally flat. On the other hand, the new jujube market in Quzhou and Zhengzhou is general flat. The speed of goods flow is not very fast. The buyers tend to buy and sell simultaneously. They carefully follow the market price.

Spot Market For First-Grade Gray Jujube is shown as follow:  

The Main Position

CJ1912 Contract: Top 20 (Unit: hand)

Long Position  39565, +3402

Short Position  30383, -1349

Net more than  +9182

Overall, the mainstream positions are now increasing, and it is expected that there will still be room for growth in the short term.

3. Summary

In terms of policy, with the successive release of the procuring policies in various regions in Xinjiang, and with the purchasing price of the market is generally higher than that of merchants, it makes the cost of red jujube pushed up. In addition, the Xinjiang Branch of the Agricultural Development Bank approves a total amount of 2.35 billion yuan funds to procure forest and fruit. At present, 1.3 billion yuan has been spent on forest and fruit acquisition. As far as the current situation is concerned, the successful acquisition of the market has enhanced market confidence. And the price of jujube maintains at a high level.

However, with the processing of the acquisition, the supply and demand of red jujube will gradually affect its price. This year, the supply and demand of red jujube will continue to be loose. And it may be hard to increase the price. Plus, as there is some last-year inventory on warehouse, it will reduce the enthusiasm and needs to require new-season red jujube from producing areas. This situation will remain until warehouse has cleared their stock. Meanwhile, the price of jujube goes high firstly and then turns low in the same period last year. It caused some merchants got lose. Therefore, this pressure is passed to this year’s merchants. In that case of unclear market conditions, buyers are not willing to purchase highly priced goods. Instead, they prefer waiting and seeing. As time goes by, the pressure of repaying loan approaches, and the reluctance to sell weakens, farmers lower the price.

Overall, there is range of goods news in the short term. The price of jujube in Zhenzhou remains a high-level fluctuation. As for investing, it is recommended that CJ2001 contract can continue to be hold, with a target price at 11,250 RMB/ton, and a stop loss at 10,650 RMB/ton.

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