1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated and rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 75055 RMB/ton, up 1.81% from 73720 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 11.79% year-on-year.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, it has risen by 8 and fell by 3 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is strong.

Basically, on the supply side, the TC of domestic copper mines continues to rise. Under the maintenance and shutdown of domestic smelters, the loose expectation on the supply side continues to enlarge. In terms of refined copper, affected by maintenance and shutdown, the output in March was 86.06 tons, down 2.7% year-on-year and 3.0% month on month, lower than market expectations. It is expected that the output may pick up month on month in April. In terms of import, the import window continued to close, resulting in weekly import losses. The domestic epidemic has led to the poor circulation of goods, the overall supply of scrap copper market continues to tighten, and the price of scrap copper is relatively strong.

On the demand side, the operating rate of refined copper rod last week was 42.15%, with a sharp decrease of 15.21% month on month. The continued severity of the epidemic has put the industry into a passive position. At present, the epidemic in Shanghai is still tense, the impact of the subsequent shortage of raw materials will be more obvious, and the operating rate of refined copper rod may continue to decline. In terms of inventory, LME total warehouse increased by 3600 tons to 110700 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 400 tons to 35400 tons. At present, affected by the epidemic, the pattern of weak supply and demand is obvious, and the copper price is expected to maintain a volatile trend

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