According to the data monitored by the SunSirs, the PP market fluctuated in March. On the whole, the spot prices of various brands rose. As of March 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8990 RMB/ton, with an increase or decrease of + 5.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
Industrial chain: upstream, the propylene market trend in March is mainly divided into two stages, a substantial rise stage and a decline stage. In early March, the price of propylene rose rapidly to the highest average price of 9283 RMB/ton in the month, an increase of 10.08% over the beginning of the month. Mainly due to the tense situation in Ukraine, the market's concern about the risk of supply interruption increased, and the rise of propylene increased under the strong pull of crude oil. Insufficient follow-up of demand in the latter half of the year, while the oil price fluctuated and fell. Under the influence of double bad news, propylene rose back and the focus of the market moved down. As of the end of the month, the market was low and volatile. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and volatile in the near future.
The remote upstream crude oil operated in shock this month, the price of PP direct raw material propylene rose and fell, and the cost side support was first strong and then weak. In the middle of the year, the international market also had differences on stopping the decline and returning the rise of crude oil, but the transmission of benefits was not smooth. At the end of the month, the situation in Russia and Ukraine reappeared the opportunity of easing, and the international crude oil fell again, which was bad for the polypropylene industry chain. In terms of supply, the supply of PP was abundant in March, and there were many inventories in enterprises and midstream. In the second half of the month, enterprises took the initiative to reduce the burden, which did not reach the expected scale, the operating rate of the industry was still high, and the profit of petrochemical plants was under pressure. The inventory pressure of merchants is the same, and buyers are more resistant to the supply of high priced goods. Generally, small orders are taken and followed up carefully. In terms of demand, there was no centralized delivery of goods by downstream enterprises this month, superimposed with the rebound of domestic health events, and the logistics and production in some areas were affected. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, enterprises are blocked from going to the warehouse, and the spot market is short.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by business society, as of March 31, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was similar to that of wire drawing materials. The mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 9016.67 RMB/ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, the rise and fall range is + 6.50%, with a year-on-year decrease of - 2.87%. In March, the main downstream non-woven enterprises of PP fiber materials started gradually, and the demand changed from weak to stable. Terminal enterprises tend to take goods just to maintain production, but the market is abundant and competitive. In March, the demand for medical fiber products increased significantly, and the increase of downstream orders also boosted the operating rate of fiber enterprises. Generally speaking, the supply of PP fiber materials was abundant in March, and the cost side bottomed out. It is expected that the operation will be weak in the later stage due to the weakening of the cost side.
In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market rose this month. As of March 31, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10283.33 RMB/ton, with an increase or decrease of + 6.20% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. China has a large number of local diagnoses in the whole month of March, with a surge in epidemic prevention pressure. At the same time, it has a pulling effect on the demand for medical meltblown cloth materials. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is generally sufficient, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high, which suppresses the increase of meltblown materials. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may still be strong.
Future forecast
PP analysts of SunSirs believe that: after the rise of domestic polypropylene market in March, the market of raw propylene surged and fell, the beneficial effect of crude oil cost turned from strong to weak, the boosting effect turned downward, and the transmission efficiency gradually decreased. Crude oil fell again at the end of the month, and the support of PP raw material end began to be empty. The demand of terminal enterprises remains weak, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the goods are taken carefully. At the end of the month, the offer of petrochemical plants was stable and rising, and the merchants had accumulated stock in stock. Their mentality was not strong, and the offer was lower. It is expected that the PP market may fall due to the weakening of far-end raw materials in early April.
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