Disk situation: The daily limit of the main stainless steel 2103 contract on Thursday, the highest within the day is 14725, the lowest is 14045, and the closing price is 14030, which is 4.95% higher than the closing price of the previous trading day; trading volume is 141595, +53899; position is 120548, +21414. Basis 675; SS03-04 spread 55.

Market focus: (1) The number of ADP employment in the United States decreased by 123,000 in December, which is the first negative value since April 2020. It is estimated to increase by 75,000, and the previous value was an increase of 307,000. (2) According to data from Mysteel.com, the total metal production of nickel and iron in China and Indonesia in December was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 6.01% from the previous month and an increase of 5.83% from the same period last year. The output is expected to reach 102,500 tons in January, an increase of 5.28% from the previous month and 16.02% from the same period last year. 

Spot analysis: spot 304/2B roll-cut on January 7th, Wuxi quoted price 15200-15400, average price 15300, +50, Foshan quoted price 15450-15650, average price 15550, +50.

Warehouse receipts inventory: The stainless steel warehouse receipts totaled 21,408 tons on Thursday, an increase of 3779 tons per day.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions of stainless steel main 2103 contracts are 91,203 hands, with a daily increase of 13,228 hands and a short position of 98,465 hands, a daily increase of 12,848 hands, a net short position of 7,262 hands, a daily decrease of 380 hands, both long and short positions increased, and headroom decreased.

Market research and judgment: Stainless steel 2103 daily limit on January 7. The return of ferronickel from upstream Indonesia continues to rise to make up for the domestic gap. In the long term, it will suppress the price of ferronickel. However, the inventory of refined nickel continues to deplete, and the epidemic situation in South Africa continues to worsen. The impact on the supply of chromium raw materials is gradually increasing. Strong support. Under the recent environmental protection policies, trucks can only be on the road when their emissions meet the requirements, which has led to a reduction in the efficiency of domestic logistics and transportation, a reduction in market arrivals, and a significant decline in inventory; and the number of futures warehouse receipts still has a large gap compared with the 2101 contract holdings, and the possibility of forced positions increases Large, boosting steel prices to rise sharply. Technically, the main stainless steel contract 2103 Masukura is heavy, and the mainstream long position is larger. It is expected to continue to be strong in the short term. Operationally, it is recommended to do more near 14,700 yuan/ton, and stop loss at 14,500 yuan/ton.

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