According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, since November, the external market has been bullish, domestic oil stocks have fallen, and multiple bullish factors have been superimposed. The performance of the oil market remains strong and continues to fluctuate. At the beginning of the month, the average soybean oil market price was 7,630 yuan/ton. On November 12, the average soybean oil market price was 7,916 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 3.76%. At the beginning of the month, the average palm oil market price was 6,774 yuan/ton. On November 12, the palm oil market The average price was 6,892 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 1.74%.

According to the monthly increase and decrease chart of soybean oil from 2019 to October 2020, it can be seen that in 2019, soybean oil rose more and fell less, and the overall increase was 7 months, with the highest increase of 13.41%. In the fourth quarter, October and December rose better, while November’s performance was weaker, falling 0.26%.

The rise and fall of soybean oil in 2020 is relatively concentrated. The price of soybean oil has been falling for the first four months, and the price of soybean oil has been rising for the next six months. The maximum increase in July was over 12%, and the increase in soybean oil in August and October was around 7 points. In early November, the performance of soybean oil was still strong, and it was in an upward channel as a whole. As of the 12th, it had risen by more than 3 points.

According to the monthly increase and decrease chart of palm oil from 2019 to October 2020, it can be seen that palm oil rose more and fell less in 2019, and the overall increase was more obvious than that of soybean oil. It rose for 8 months and fell for 4 months. After three consecutive months of gains, palm oil rose more than 4% in November.

In the first October of 2020, palm oil fell for 4 consecutive months, and then rose for 6 consecutive months. In February, the decline was the largest, exceeding 20%. The biggest increase was in July, exceeding 12%. Compared with soybean oil, palm oil performed poorly in September, rising only 0.13%, and October was relatively close to soybean oil, rising 7.32%. In the first ten days of November, palm oil and soybean oil showed a rising trend, the increase was relatively smaller than that of soybean oil, and the increase was close to 2 points.

Multiplying bullish factors, soybean oil palm oil continues to rise

At the beginning of November, news appeared frequently. The U.S. election is imminent, and the improvement in Sino-U.S. relations is expected to increase. External crude oil and U.S. soybeans both performed strongly. Coupled with the impact of the La Niña weather, Malaysian palm oil entered a seasonal production reduction cycle. November 10 , The MPOB report shows that Malaysia’s palm oil production forecast for October is lowered by 7.75%, and the inventory forecast is lowered by 8%. Bullish support at the futures level, the soybean oil palm oil futures market rose sharply, and the spot price rose with the market. The largest single-day spot increase exceeded 100 yuan/ton.

Driven by terminal demand, soybean oil palm oil stocks were low. In mid-November, domestic commercial soybean oil stocks were 1.2 million tons, down over 2% on a week-on-week basis. The total port edible palm oil stocks were 370,000 tons, down by about 9.6% on a week-on-week basis. Domestic soybean oil palm oil stocks continued to decline, which to some extent supported the high level of soybean oil palm oil.

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that the fats and oils should not be overly bearish. The fourth quarter is still the peak season for fats and oils. The news is still in favor of factors, and the performance of soybean oil palm oil is still strong.

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