Disk situation: Last Thursday, the main stainless steel 2011 contract continued to fall under pressure, with the highest of 14,150, the lowest of 13,920, and the closing price of 14,005, down 0.74% from the closing price of the previous trading day; trading volume was 25,441, -21,798; positions were 43,384, +379. Basis 1,395; SS11-12 spread -35.

Market focus: (1) The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and hinted to keep interest rates low until 2023. However, the economy is expected to shrink by 3.7% this year, stronger than the 6.5% contraction expected in June. (2) The chief of staff of the United States stated that the White House is open to a new stimulus package with a scale of 1.52 trillion US dollars, and the two parties in the United States have reached a consensus and expected to heat up.

Spot analysis: spot 304/2B rolls-trimmed on September 17th, Wuxi quoted 15,300-15,500, average price 15,400, -50, and Foshan quoted 15,400-15,700, average price 15,550, -50.

Warehouse receipt inventory: On Thursday, the stainless steel warehouse receipts totaled 11,693 tons, a daily reduction of 303 tons.

Market research and judgment: Stainless steel 2011 continued to fall under pressure on September 17. Domestic nickel ore supply is tight, and prices are strong; domestic nickel-iron production is superimposed on the declining trend. In the short term, Indonesia's return to the country is limited, and the price of nickel-iron continues to rise. With reduced profits, cost support has increased. However, due to the active expansion of stainless steel production and the end of the preliminary overhaul, steel mills have continued to expand their production schedules; superimposed on the recent drop in steel prices and the increase in downstream wait-and-see, orders have been weak. Recently, domestic 300 series inventories have rebounded slightly, and the risk of accumulation is gradually increasing. The pressure continues to increase. Technically, the main force of the stainless steel 2011 contract short-term Masukura is relatively large, pay attention to the support at the 13,900 position below, and it is expected to fluctuate at a short-term low. In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the range of 13,860-14,200 yuan/ton, with a stop loss of 100 yuan/ton each.

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