The domestic refined oil price adjustment window has opened at 24:00 on February 24th, and the retail price of refined oil will be raised again. In 2026, the retail price of refined oil will achieve three increases, zero decreases, and one suspension. During this cycle, the crude oil market has risen, and the crude oil change rate remains positive. The retail price of refined oil is about to rise three times in a row.
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market has shown an upward trend. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the April WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $66.31 per barrel, and the settlement price of the April Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.49 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, the crude oil price market has risen, driven by multiple positive factors such as the tense US Iran relations and the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The core driving force is the significant short-term supply disturbance, coupled with the rebound of geopolitical risk premiums, and the concentrated release of bullish sentiment in the market, resulting in a significant increase in crude oil market prices; On the other hand, global crude oil inventories have fallen beyond expectations, and oil prices continue to rise. Overall, the trend of crude oil has risen this cycle. As of the 24th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 3.55%, corresponding to a 175 RMB increase in gasoline and a 170 RMB increase in diesel prices per ton in China, which is equivalent to an increase of 89# 0.13 RMB, 92# 0.13 RMB, 95# 0.14 RMB, and 0# 0.14 RMB per liter.
In terms of gasoline, the operation of Shandong's refineries is relatively stable, with a sustained operating rate. The average operating rate of Shandong's refineries is around 53%, and the recent increase in operating rates of major refineries nationwide has led to an increase in inventory levels of some units compared to before. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, residents' travel and other activities have increased recently, and the frequency of private car use has increased. The demand for gasoline in the domestic market is still guaranteed, but the continuous increase in the popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, and the gasoline market is mainly volatile.
In terms of diesel: Recently, there has been a slight increase in the supply side of the diesel market. In terms of demand, outdoor terminal oil units have stopped work and are on vacation. Construction sites and projects in various regions are on vacation. During the Spring Festival holiday, logistics and transportation have stagnated, and the demand for diesel market has become increasingly sluggish. As a result, the diesel market is at a low level.
Looking at the future, short-term oil prices will still be dominated by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks. Against the backdrop of supply disruptions not completely subsiding, geopolitical risks continuing to rise, and strong expectations of OPEC suspending production increases, oil prices may experience wide fluctuations in the near future. From a domestic perspective, there is not much change in the short-term refinery operating rate, and the supply of refined oil is normal. In terms of gasoline, the demand for gasoline is still acceptable due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday. As travel conditions return to normal after the holiday ends, it is expected that the gasoline market prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period. There are currently no favorable factors for diesel demand, and the overall performance is average. It is expected that the diesel market trend will be sluggish.
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