Entering 2026, the price of raw material sulfur fluctuated at a high level. The price of granular sulfur at ports surged to 4,370 RMB/ton and then fell back to 4,130 RMB/ton, with a decrease of 5.49%. Sulfuric acid prices kept rising, and the average mainstream delivered price in Hubei Province increased by 6% to 1,075 RMB/ton, supporting the monoammonium phosphate market. As of February 9, the mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in Hubei Province was 3,850 RMB/ton, the same as at the beginning of the year. On the supply side, the domestic output of monoammonium phosphate in February is expected to be 920,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 43,600 tons, down 4.52%. Most plants maintained normal operation, and the month-on-month decline was mainly due to the fewer days in February. On the demand side, large downstream compound fertilizer factories completed their pre-holiday stockpiling, while small factories had low purchasing enthusiasm. Coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, industry players took holidays and logistics were restricted.

Review of market performance during and after the Spring Festival over the years

Looking at the periods before and after the Spring Festival over the years, taking the Hubei market as an example, the price of monoammonium phosphate tends to remain stable after the festival. The reason is that affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the output of monoammonium phosphate drops slightly after the festival. After the holiday, the core focus of the market is the raw material procurement rhythm of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises. If there is a concentrated replenishment of orders, coupled with the cost support from the rising price of sulfur after the festival, it will form an upward driving force for the monoammonium phosphate market. However, if the downstream demand remains weak, the price of monoammonium phosphate will be difficult to rise after the festival, and it will probably maintain a stable price and wait-and-see attitude.

In terms of price, the average spot price of domestic monoammonium phosphate in January 2026 was 3,850 RMB/ton, up 2.20% month-on-month and 28.88% year-on-year. In January, the raw material end maintained high-level fluctuations, and the overall industry cost remained high. In addition, the phased stocking of raw materials by downstream compound fertilizer enterprises boosted market sentiment, leading to a rapid rebound in the price of domestic monoammonium phosphate after a narrow decline. Among them, the ex-factory price of 55% powder in the Hubei market rebounded from the range of 3,750-3,850 RMB/ton to 3,830-3,850 RMB/ton, with only a small adjustment of 50-80 RMB/ton in the low-end price.

Inventory of Main Influencing Factors of Monoammonium Phosphate During the 2026 Spring Festival

1. Supply Analysis

On the supply side, over the years, the domestic monoammonium phosphate production capacity utilization rate in the first quarter has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. From 2024 to 2025, the weekly utilization rate in the first quarter ranged from 42.92% to 53.19%, with an average of 53.41%. At the beginning of February 2026, the industry's production capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 64%, which is 6 percentage points higher than the average of previous years and at a high level in the past three years. The utilization rate will remain at a relatively high level after the holiday. Although the output will decrease due to the fewer days in February, the production capacity utilization rate is relatively high. Affected by seasonal factors, in addition, the international supply of raw material sulfur is tight, leading to high external prices, while domestic prices continue to remain high, and sulfuric acid also remains firm, forming continuous cost support for the industry.

2. Demand Analysis

From the perspective of downstream demand, as of early February, the operating rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 41.79%, an increase of 15.45% year-on-year and 0.45 percentage points month-on-month. The main reason is that the operating rates in Hebei, Hubei, Shandong and Henan provinces have increased with the improvement in product shipments, while changes in other regions are limited. It is expected that the industry operating rate will decline during the Spring Festival.

Looking at the downstream inventory situation, as of early February, the inventory of compound fertilizer sample enterprises stood at 749,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6,300 tons (a decrease of 0.83%). This was due to the rising prices of raw materials urea and potassium fertilizer boosting market sentiment, with some distributors actively picking up goods, and the proportion of goods flowing to the Northeast being high. It is expected that during the Spring Festival, logistics will be stagnant and industry players will be on vacation, so factory shipments will decrease significantly.

Post-holiday forecast

Overall, the raw material side will continue to maintain high-level narrow fluctuations, with costs remaining high and difficult to reduce, while the supply side will operate steadily. On the demand side, as downstream compound fertilizer factories reduce their finished product inventories and increase their operating rates after the holiday, this will drive the purchase of additional orders for monoammonium phosphate. However, the winter storage gap is limited, and with the current high prices, it is expected that the price fluctuation range of monoammonium phosphate will be limited, and it will most likely remain firm.

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