2025 marks the beginning of Trump's Critical Minerals 2.0 strategy. Faced with a supply chain predicament where 12 critical minerals are 100% dependent on imports and 29 others have import dependence exceeding 50%, the Trump administration, in its second term, continued the "America First" slogan of its first term, simplifying the critical mineral supply chain issue into "trade" and "control." Domestically, through administrative means and direct government investment in core companies, the US strengthened its intervention and control over the critical mineral sector. Internationally, through coercive transactions under the guise of "peace" and "security," it promoted the construction of a geopolitically exclusive critical mineral supply chain and proposed the "Don Ro Doctrine" aimed at controlling the Western Hemisphere, pushing the global critical mineral supply towards an uncertain future.

Executive orders pave the way, clearing obstacles and accelerating production of critical minerals.

Activating the emergency authorization under the Defense Production Act. On January 20, 2025, Trump signed the Executive Order on the National Energy Emergency on his first day in office, elevating critical mineral security to a "national energy emergency," with the goal of achieving at least 90% domestic or allied supply of 25 core critical minerals by 2030. Within one month, 20 projects were expedited for approval, requiring federal agencies to activate expedited procedures to shorten environmental impact assessment and permitting cycles. The expedited approval projects included lithium, copper, rare earth elements, uranium/vanadium, antimony/gold, zinc/manganese, titanium, potassium, and 10 other critical minerals including palladium, silver, and nickel.

Establish a central interagency coordination mechanism. On February 14, 2025, Trump signed the Executive Order Establishing the National Interagency Energy Leadership Council (NEDC), explicitly including critical minerals within the scope of energy leadership and strengthening federal coordination of land and resource development. Connecting with the National Energy Emergency Declaration of January 20, 2025, this interagency coordination center (NEDC) addresses issues such as the U.S.'s heavy reliance on imported critical minerals and delays in energy infrastructure approvals. This agency, under the Executive Office of the President, has the core mission of coordinating the extraction, production, transportation, approval, and regulation of energy and critical minerals using a "whole-of-government" model, developing a national energy leadership strategy, eliminating approval barriers, leveraging private sector investment, and reducing internal friction in approval processes through interagency coordination.

Accelerating Domestic Production of Critical Minerals. On March 20, 2025, Trump signed the Executive Order "Immediate Action to Increase U.S. Mineral Production," invoking the Defense Production Act (DPA) and utilizing emergency powers to comprehensively accelerate the development of the entire critical mineral supply chain. The NEDC will coordinate the implementation, prioritizing mineral production on federal land, reducing the approval cycle for mining projects from three years to six months, and expanding the number of priority projects from 20 to over 50. The first batch of priority critical mineral projects was finalized, and coordination with the Department of the Interior was undertaken to lift mining development bans in Nevada, New Mexico, and other regions, releasing federal land capacity. The drafting of the "National Energy Dominance Strategy" was initiated, expanding the expedited approval mechanism of the January emergency order to cover the entire supply chain, and adding two core tools: DPA financing and priority development on federal land.

Coal has been designated a "critical mineral." On April 8, 2025, Trump signed the Executive Order "Revitalizing America's Beautiful and Clean Coal Industry," leveraging the DPA and NEDC to streamline funding, approvals, and land acquisition, providing support for power supply to AI data centers, coal use in the steel and metallurgical industries, and exports. Through DPA Title III financing, it is projected that US coal production will increase by 15% to 20% from 2025 to 2027, creating approximately 50,000 to 80,000 new jobs and boosting the Midwest's energy economy. Stable metallurgical coal supply will support the steel industry, and electricity costs for AI data centers will decrease by approximately 20% to 30%, supporting the expansion of the digital economy. This will fill the gap in the critical mineral system, forming a complete energy mineral security network along with lithium, rare earths, and other minerals.

Equity binding, activates the vitality of manufacturing enterprises and capital markets

The Trump administration amended laws to open the floodgates for government investment. Through these amendments, the administration opened the door to billions of dollars in funding for government intervention in critical minerals and energy sectors. The core of this approach was aligning national security with industrial strategy, implemented through the Department of Defense's Strategic Capital Office and the Department of Energy's Loan Program Office, and opening up diverse funding channels including financing, grants, equity, and credit. This included activating the Defense Production Act to include critical mineral production capacity within the scope of national security; allocating $7.5 billion to critical minerals through the Big and Beautiful Act (OBBA) ($2 billion for expanding reserves, $5 billion for supply chain investment, and $500 million in credit); adjusting the use of funds under the Chip and Science Act, redirecting at least $2 billion in chip subsidies to equity investments in critical mineral projects such as rare earths and lithium; and revising the Inflation Reduction Act tax rules to provide additional tax incentives for equity investments in critical minerals, favoring domestic critical mineral projects.

Government investment strengthens control over core production enterprises. The US government has established an operational framework of "equity intervention + power addition + supply chain binding" through preferred stock, warrants, loan-to-equity swaps, gold stock, and grants in exchange for equity. In the past year, the Trump administration invested over $1 billion in acquiring stakes in mining companies. Transactions included the Department of Defense's $400 million acquisition of a 15% stake in MP Materials (providing a $150 million loan, signing a 10-year guaranteed purchase agreement, and requiring increased heavy rare earth separation capabilities), a $670 million acquisition of shares in magnet manufacturer Vulcan Elements, and a $35.6 million acquisition of shares in Canadian company Trilogy Metals Inc., along with additional warrants. The Department of Energy, through negotiations, converted a $2.26 billion loan for Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass lithium mine project into a 5% to 10% stake, becoming its potential largest shareholder. The project's first phase capacity can replace 80% of US lithium imports, and it is scheduled to begin production in 2026.

Revising the Critical Minerals List to Align Strategic Direction. On November 6, 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released the "Final List of Critical Minerals for 2025," increasing the total number of minerals from 50 in 2022 to 60, adding 10 new minerals including copper, silver, uranium, boron, lead, metallurgical coal, phosphates, potash, rhenium, and silicon. This is the largest revision since the list was created in 2018. In accordance with the 2020 Energy Act, the list must be reviewed and updated at least every three years. Minerals included on the list will receive federal funding, and exploration, mining, and refining projects will enjoy expedited approval processes, promoting domestic production capacity expansion. They may also be included in Section 232 investigations, affecting tariffs and import controls; attracting mining investment; and compelling allies to strengthen mineral cooperation, reducing dependence on specific regions. The 2025 list will form a comprehensive framework covering "industrial base + energy security + agricultural security," using scientific risk assessment models to accurately identify weak links in the supply chain and provide clear guidance for policy implementation.

Equity investment has revitalized the market and spurred private capital investment. Government participation has acted as a "confidence anchor," with Lithium Americas' stock price surging 98.7% in after-hours trading following the news of the investment, and Trilogy Metals' stock price soaring over 250%. This market reaction has attracted private capital to follow suit, alleviating the funding shortfall in mining investment and providing ample financial support for capacity expansion. The combination of over $100 billion in policy funding and the enthusiastic support from the capital market has created a synergy. Since 2025, the average stock price increase of US rare earth miners has exceeded 241%, with some companies seeing increases of up to five times. During the US Department of Defense's acquisition and financing of MP's equity, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs invested $1 billion. In October 2025, JPMorgan Chase issued a statement pledging to invest $1.5 trillion over 10 years in 27 sub-sectors, including mining, refining, solar and nuclear energy, battery storage, and military supplies.

Building a rapidly growing industrial ecosystem to drive domestic supply

Vertical integration protects key domestic mining companies. A closed-loop supply chain is being built, controlling core mineral resources through equity investment and requiring end-manufacturing companies to provide procurement guarantees, forming a vertically integrated industrial ecosystem. In February 2023, General Motors (GM) announced a $650 million investment in Lithium Americas. In October 2024, this was adjusted to a $625 million investment, acquiring a 38% stake in Lithium Americas' flagship Thacker Pass hard-rock lithium mine. Through a combination of "equity binding + long-term underwriting + technological synergy + supply chain localization," GM focuses on the Thacker Pass hard-rock lithium mine and links it with brine extraction and South American brine projects, forming a complete supply chain lock-in covering mining, refining, and underwriting, supporting the demand for over 1 million electric vehicles annually. Simultaneously, the US government has extended its participation to downstream manufacturing, investing in companies like Intel and binding supply chain synergies.

Introducing a Price Floor Policy for Critical Minerals. Addressing the issue of persistently high domestic production costs in the United States, Trump introduced the Critical Minerals Price Floor policy. Centered on Section 232 of the National Security Act, and supplemented by the Inflation Reduction Act and the Defense Production Act, this policy authorizes the government to set price floores through negotiation, procurement agreements, tariffs, and other tools, and to enforce them when necessary. The policy aims to address the problems of insufficient domestic capacity investment and fragile supply chains caused by low market pricing, and to prevent supply chain disruptions. The policy applies to 60 minerals listed in the USGS 2025 Critical Minerals List, prioritizing rare earths, lithium, cobalt, gallium, and germanium—minerals with fragile supply chains and high import dependence.

The "Section 232" tariff barrier will be used to construct import tariff barriers for critical minerals. On April 15, 2025, Trump signed an executive order requiring the U.S. Secretary of Commerce to initiate a national security review of imports of processed critical minerals and their derivatives under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The core objective is to assess the threat posed by import dependence to U.S. defense and supply chain resilience, replacing the previously announced "reciprocal tariffs" with Section 232 tariffs. The scope covers 50 critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths, etc.) from the USGS, 17 rare earth elements, uranium, and their processed forms/derived products. A provisional report must be submitted within 90 days, assessing and identifying high-risk source countries and risks such as supply disruptions and price volatility, and studying the feasibility and effectiveness of measures such as tariffs, quotas, investment reviews, domestic production subsidies, and strategic reserves.

The "Future Mines Initiative" aims to address the shortcomings of the US industry. The US is heavily reliant on foreign sources for rare earth separation technology and lithium processing capacity. In 2025, the US launched the "Future Mines Initiative," led by the Department of Energy, which will provide $815 million in special funding to build a comprehensive support system encompassing technology research and development, testing and verification, and commercialization. In September 2025, the Department of Energy officially launched $80 million in test site funding and $15 million in laboratory research funding, marking a shift from "strategic reserves" to "technology breakthrough." In terms of supply security, the initiative aims to increase the self-sufficiency rate of key minerals from 38% to 65% through upgrading domestic production capacity; in terms of technological dominance, it seeks to gain standard-setting power in areas such as smart mining and deep-sea development; and in terms of rule-making, it aims to build a mineral trade and development system based on "US standards."

Promote and expand the national strategic reserves of critical minerals. The core of expanding the National Strategic Reserve for Critical Minerals (NMSR) is to leverage laws such as the Big and Beautiful Act and the Defense Production Act, supported by a dedicated budget of $2 billion. This will focus on 38 minerals with high external dependence, including rare earths, lithium, cobalt, gallium, and germanium, to build a three-dimensional reserve system encompassing physical reserves, production capacity, and alliance cooperation. The goal is to increase the reserve cycle for core minerals to over 180 days by 2027. As of January 2026, in terms of funding, the U.S. Department of Defense has secured its first $1 billion procurement fund, primarily for strategic commodities such as cobalt, rare earths, antimony, and tantalum. Regarding infrastructure, the Nevada Strategic Reserve (SMR) project is progressing rapidly, intended for the centralized storage of minerals such as rare earths and lithium. In terms of collaboration, the U.S. and Australia have signed an $8.5 billion agreement, including a floor on rare earth prices and joint reserve provisions, promoting a critical mineral production alliance among G7 allies. In terms of legislation, the "Securing Critical U.S. Resources and Elements Act of 2026" proposes a $2.5 billion "Strategic Resilience Reserve" (SRR), establishing a physical storage and oversight committee similar to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Building a "America First" global supply chain for critical minerals

Under the guise of "peace" and "security," the US is pressuring major resource-rich countries to reshape the US-centric division of labor. On April 30, 2025, the Trump administration, citing peace, pushed and pressured Ukraine to sign an agreement securing development rights for 57 key minerals in Ukraine under the pretext of "peace and reconstruction." On October 26, 2025, threatening tariffs, the US signed trade and key mineral agreements with four Southeast Asian countries: Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam. A "peace for minerals" agreement was signed with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with the US leading mediation aimed at ending the 30-year conflict in eastern DRC (North Kivu and South Kivu), and signing mineral development cooperation terms. According to the framework agreement, the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) cooperated with the DRC's state-owned mining company Gécamines, granting US companies priority investment and procurement rights for key minerals such as cobalt, copper, and lithium, with supporting infrastructure investment tied to resource development.

The establishment of the "Critical Minerals Trading Club" is underway. In August 2025, the United States, along with 10 other countries including the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia, established the "Mineral Security Partnership Financing Network." In October 2025, the "Critical Minerals Trading Club" was launched. This club serves as a core platform for Western countries to engage in the refining and processing of critical minerals, attracting countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia to join. Its ultimate goal is to "gain sufficient strength to lead and win the artificial intelligence race." The financing network, led by the U.S. Treasury Department, the Department of the Interior, and the DFC, manages over $30 trillion in assets, providing dedicated loans and equity support for projects. Member countries open new mining rights to U.S. companies, which can obtain up to 70% of the project's output before recouping their investment, with profits based on "investment ratio + output sharing." The U.S. provides exploration and smelting technologies and promotes the establishment of "club standards," attempting to enhance Western countries' technological dominance in the processing stage.

Unilaterally accelerating deep-sea mineral development. On April 24, 2025, Trump signed the Executive Order "Release Critical Offshore Minerals and Resources," bypassing international maritime organizations to unilaterally accelerate the exploration, mining, and processing of deep-sea minerals (nickel, cobalt, copper, manganese, rare earth elements, etc.) in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and International Seabed Area (ABNJ), building an offshore mineral supply chain and strengthening U.S. dominance in deep-sea mining technology and international rules. Led by NEDC, the U.S. Departments of the Interior, Commerce, Energy, Defense, and State will coordinate and regularly report progress to the President. Priority will be given to projects such as the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) polymetallic nodule project in the Pacific Ocean and the cobalt-rich crust project off the coast of Alaska, ensuring efficient implementation.

The "Don Rothschild Doctrine" proposes control over the Western Hemisphere. On December 4, 2025, the Trump administration officially released its second-term National Security Strategy (NSS), explicitly listing the Western Hemisphere (Americas) as the highest priority in the US global strategy, emphasizing the use of military and strategic power to ensure absolute US influence in the Western Hemisphere. The core of the strategy is to shift critical mineral and energy security from "offshore balancing" to direct control of the Western Hemisphere, achieving supply chain autonomy and geopolitical exclusivity. It vigorously promotes nearshore production, conducting smelting and processing within the USMCA framework to comply with the Inflation Reduction Act's subsidy requirement that "critical minerals originate from North America" ​​(reaching 80% by 2027). Simultaneously, it aims to form a closed loop of "Western Hemisphere mining—nearshore processing—US consumption," reducing dependence on extra-regional regions such as Australia, Guinea, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In 2025, after Trump begins his second term, he will launch a "CEO governance model" domestically and pursue radical "Don Rothschildism" globally in an effort to rapidly improve the security of the US's critical mineral supply. On the surface, although Trump's Critical Minerals 2.0 strategy directly targets the weaknesses of US industry, the strained US national finances, collapsing alliances, the contradictory land rights system, and the tense partisan struggle will ultimately render this strategy a magnificent "emperor's new clothes."

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