At production sites, some mines suspended operations during the holiday period, tightening pithead supply. Downstream factories also closed for the holiday, resulting in minimal restocking demand from end users. Transport volumes on the Daqin and Zhangtang rail lines dropped significantly. Major producing regions primarily fulfilled long-term contracts, while downstream power plants continued to transport contracted coal. Coal transportation and sales remained at essential levels, with Bohai Rim port inventories stabilizing or declining. With widespread production halts and holidays across upstream and downstream enterprises, the coal market entered extended holiday mode.

Before the Spring Festival, coal prices faced limited upside potential, primarily stabilizing with slight upward momentum. The port thermal coal market showed strength as shrinking imported coal supply shifted market expectations. Downstream buyers shifted to domestic procurement for essential needs, simultaneously driving some speculative demand purchases, pushing port transaction prices up slightly. During the holiday, numerous vessels anchored at Bohai Rim ports, with shipments proceeding normally and ports continuing modest inventory drawdowns. Private coal mines halted production and sales, while traders reduced participation. Combined with shipping cost support and the extended holiday, market coal arrivals at ports continued to decline. Downstream industrial enterprises gradually closed for holidays, weakening demand and resulting in subdued supply and demand at both production sites and ports. Post-holiday, supply constraints in the imported coal market, coupled with ongoing inventory drawdowns at Bohai Rim ports, may bolster domestic coal prices at ports, sustaining a modest upward trend. Currently, most traders hold optimistic expectations for the post-holiday market. According to Manager Zhang, a trader in Caofeidian, he believes that with domestic coal shipping costs remaining inverted, rapid increases in imported coal prices, and the prospect of swift recovery in non-power sector demand after the holiday, port coal prices are more likely to rise than fall. Consequently, he stockpiled substantial quantities of high-quality market coal before the holiday, awaiting post-holiday price increases before selling. In contrast, Manager Liu of Jingtang Port holds a different market outlook. He is pessimistic about post-holiday coal price trends, anticipating that warmer weather will reduce residential electricity loads. Combined with downstream production resumption lagging behind upstream, coal prices may face downward pressure. Therefore, he chose to clear his inventory before the holiday and maintain a wait-and-see approach toward the post-holiday market.

Before the holiday, traders generally raised their quoted prices and refused to sell at lower levels. Downstream inquiries were mainly for small quantities of essential needs and speculative stockpiling, with limited actual transactions. The transaction price center shifted slightly upward. During the Spring Festival, the number of upstream and downstream enterprises on holiday continued to increase, and market trading activity remained low. Affected by the continuous decline in coal inventories at ports in the Bohai Rim and the possibility of reduced imports, most port traders continued to actively stockpile in anticipation of price increases. Although coastal power plants' daily coal consumption generally fell to about half of normal levels during the holiday, extending coal inventory days to 25-30 days. However, the post-holiday market outlook appears less pessimistic. First, high landed costs for imported coal and low delivery volumes to power plants. Second, Bohai Rim inventories continue to decline, particularly at Qinhuangdao Port and the four ports of Caofeidian, where inventory drops have been rapid. Insufficient rail shipments also provide some support for coal prices. Third, some traders have yet to finalize logistics turnkey contracts, leading to insufficient market coal arrivals at ports. Preliminary analysis suggests that before Indonesia's export issues are resolved, imported coal supply will remain tight, making price declines unlikely.

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