The domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate market continues its recent volatility trend. The strong upward momentum since Q4 2025 saw a temporary cooling in January, marking a critical window for market rebalancing between supply and demand.
Supply Side: Tight Balance Amid Maintenance and Expansion
Capacity concentration in the lithium hexafluorophosphate sector continues to rise, with leading companies commanding over 60% market share. The January 6 price correction stemmed directly from short-term supply easing: major producers scheduled routine maintenance on some facilities, expected to reduce monthly supply by several thousand tons; meanwhile, overall industry capacity utilization neared peak levels, prompting some firms to postpone restarting operations due to cost pressures. Notably, new capacity additions in 2026 are concentrated for release in the second half of the year. With limited supply flexibility in the first half, the industry remains in a tight balance.
Demand Side: Resilience Driven by Dual Engines of Energy Storage and Power Applications
Downstream demand shows structural divergence: In the power battery sector, significantly increased penetration of new energy vehicles and higher battery capacity per vehicle are driving electrolyte demand. The energy storage market, meanwhile, maintains rapid global installation growth driven by surging overseas residential storage orders. Although some cell manufacturers slowed procurement in January due to the Spring Festival stockpiling cycle, leading battery firms maintain low inventory levels. Rigid restocking demand continues to support prices. Market monitoring indicates electrolyte manufacturers' order visibility has extended to the end of the second quarter.
Market Dynamics: Price Transmission and Inventory Dynamics
On the cost side, lithium carbonate prices rebounded from their December 2025 trough, directly increasing production costs for lithium hexafluorophosphate. However, downstream acceptance of higher prices remains limited. Some electrolyte manufacturers have shifted cost pressures through long-term agreements, narrowing pricing flexibility in the spot market. Inventory-wise, total industry stockpiles have fallen from 15,000 tons in Q3 2025 to below 8,000 tons currently, with destocking progressing faster than anticipated.
Policy & Macro: Heightened Resource Nation Policy Uncertainty
The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export quota system continues to disrupt upstream raw material supply. The 2026 quota allocation is significantly lower than previous years, amplifying uncertainty in the lithium battery materials supply chain. Indonesia's nickel ore export restrictions have driven up lithium hydroxide costs, indirectly affecting profits from lithium hexafluorophosphate by-products. Macroeconomically, global new energy vehicle sales are projected to exceed 10 million units in 2026, while energy storage installations maintain high growth rates, providing long-term demand anchors for the industry.
Outlook: Short-Term Volatility Doesn't Alter Long-Term Logic
Although January's price correction reflects seasonal adjustment pressures, the industry's tight supply-demand balance remains fundamentally intact. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is projected to center between RMB 150,000-180,000 per ton by 2026, with leading companies' gross margins expected to rebound above 35%.
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for more than 15 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
