The Spring Festival holiday has flown by in the blink of an eye. While everyone was busy reuniting and celebrating the festival, the global political and financial circles were already in a tumult! Trump's sudden increase in global tariffs triggered a shock in the trade chain, tensions between the US and Iran pushed up international oil prices, and there were many positive developments such as domestic industrial upgrading and a strengthening exchange rate. These hot topics may all affect the global landscape and our lives in 2026.

Global Focus: Dual Impact of Tariffs and Related Situations

1. Trump's dramatic reversal on tariffs casts global trade in doubt again

During this holiday, the US tariff policy experienced a roller coaster ride, becoming the biggest variable in global economic and trade. The core changes can be divided into three steps:

▶On February 20th, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's massive tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act lacked legal authorization, and most of the relevant tariffs currently being imposed by the U.S. will be forced to be suspended.

▶Counterattack on February 21: Facing the ruling, Trump swiftly signed an executive order announcing the imposition of a 10% temporary tariff on all imported US goods starting from February 24, lasting for 150 days (to allow time for formulating new legal tariffs).

▶Subsequent increase: Subsequently, Trump issued another post, raising the global tariff rate from 10% to 15%, and revealed that he would introduce brand-new legal tariff measures.

Currently, the European Union has clearly stated its intention to counterattack, planning to suspend the US-EU $750 billion energy procurement agreement and initiate countermeasures, casting a shadow over the recovery of global trade.

2. Tensions between the US and Iran have driven international crude oil prices to a half-year high

The tariff controversy is not yet resolved, and the situation in the Middle East has added further variables, directly driving up international crude oil prices. The core logic can be divided into two points:

▶ Situation level: On February 18th local time, the US military continued to advance its relevant deployments, and Trump was making a final assessment on related matters. Senior Israeli officials also stated that the "timeframe" for the US's relevant measures against Iran was "shortening," and the situation continued to escalate.

▶ Oil price performance: Coupled with the unexpected decline in global crude oil inventories, oil prices continued to rise - on February 19th, WTI and Brent crude oil futures closed up 4.59% and 4.35% respectively; on February 20th, the two oil prices hit new highs of $67.03 and $71.66 per barrel respectively, setting a half-year record, with a cumulative increase of over 5% in two days.

The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil transportation, and its security directly affects global energy supply. The upcoming joint naval exercises between Iran and Russia have further exacerbated market concerns, and there is still upward pressure on oil prices.

Global Macro & Politics: GDP and PMI Reports Released, Many Countries See New Developments

1. Data from major economies: The growth rate in the United States has slowed down, while the manufacturing sector in many countries has rebounded

During the holiday period, a series of key economic data were released globally, showing a trend of "divergence towards improvement": the actual GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2025 grew by 1.4% year-on-year (far below expectations of 3.0%), marking a significant decline from the 4.4% growth in the third quarter, with an annual growth of 2.2%, indicating a weakening momentum of economic expansion; the manufacturing PMI of Japan, the Eurozone, and India performed impressively in February, rising to 52.8, 50.8 (returning to expansion), and 57.5, respectively. Furthermore, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that artificial intelligence technology is expected to boost global economic growth by nearly 1 percentage point, becoming an important driving force for future growth.

2. International cooperation & political changes: US and Indonesia sign agreement, Japan changes its Prime Minister

On February 19th, the United States and Indonesia officially signed a trade agreement, under which Indonesia will eliminate tariff barriers for over 99% of American export products, while the United States maintains a basic tariff of 19% on Indonesian products and offers zero tariff for certain products. The two sides have finalized commercial cooperation worth approximately $33 billion. On February 18th, Sanae Takami, the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, was elected as Japan's new Prime Minister, ushering in a new era in Japanese politics.

China's economy: continuous positive developments! New breakthroughs in industries, exchange rate, and real estate

Compared to the global turmoil, the domestic economy has maintained stability and made progress. During the holidays, there were multiple positive developments, covering areas such as industrial upgrading, exchange rate, and real estate.

1. Industrial upgrading accelerates, with multiple industries delivering impressive performance reports

All 31 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in China have fully initiated a new round of equipment renewal for 2026, covering approximately 20 fields such as industry and electronic information, to boost domestic demand and promote industrial upgrading. By the end of 2025, China's steel industry had completed ultra-low emission transformation, with over 80% of crude steel production capacity meeting standards. Relevant enterprises have significantly reduced energy consumption, achieving remarkable results in green development. In 2025, the profits of China's non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises above designated size reached 528.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, setting a new historical record.

2. Automotive industry: China's milestone in its overseas expansion, with frequent actions both domestically and internationally

On February 21st, it was reported that China's overseas sales of manufactured and self-owned brand automobiles had surpassed 9 million units, marking a new stage for Chinese automobiles as they transition from "product export" to "industry export". Chongqing issued policies to implement the "Chongqing Automobile Export" plan, focusing on expanding the import and export of new energy vehicles. Internationally, Volkswagen Group announced that it would cut costs by 20% across all brands by the end of 2028, and did not rule out measures such as factory closures.

3. Finance & Real Estate: Renminbi strengthens, real estate enters a critical period of recovery

During the Spring Festival, the RMB exchange rate performed impressively, with both offshore and onshore RMB rising to the 6.88 range, hitting a new high since April 2023, and appreciating by nearly 1.3% overall since February. Several institutions have looked ahead to the real estate market in 2026, believing that this year is a crucial year for the recovery of real estate enterprises' balance sheets. The China Real Estate Index Research Institute predicts that subsequent incremental policies will be implemented more quickly, and the year-on-year declines in commercial housing sales, new construction starts, and investment will narrow compared to 2025, indicating signs of stabilization in the industry.

Summary of holiday hotspots

During this Spring Festival holiday, the global situation presented a trend of "external chaos and internal stability": Trump's new tariff policy and the relevant situation between the US and Iran disrupted the global market, while China continued to make efforts in industries, foreign trade, finance, and other fields, demonstrating strong development resilience. Relevant hotspots deserve further attention.

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