I. Sluggish Growth in Refrigerator, Air Conditioner, and Washing Machine Production

In 2025, domestic refrigerator production reached 98.134 million units, an increase of 430,000 units compared to 2024, representing a 0.44% year-on-year rise; Compared to 2023, production increased by 10.755 million units, a 12.3% rise.

In 2025, domestic air conditioner production reached 228.778 million units, a decrease of 3.087 million units compared to 2024, representing a 1.33% year-on-year decline; Compared to 2023, production increased by 14.341 million units, a 6.68% rise. As shown in the chart above, August to November represents the traditional off-season for air conditioner production. Furthermore, the production volume from September to December 2025 falls short of the corresponding period in 2024.

In 2025, domestic washing machine production reached 96.737 million units, an increase of 7.0197 million units compared to 2024, representing a 7.82% year-on-year growth. Compared to 2023, production increased by 16.7786 million units, a 20.98% rise.

Therefore, the total production of China's three major white goods in 2025 will be 423.649 million units, an increase of 4.3627 million units compared to 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.04%. This growth rate is relatively limited. As galvanized steel coils are the primary raw material for the casings of these three major white goods, significant growth in their consumption is also unlikely.

II. Changes in National Subsidy Policies

As shown in the table above, the 2026 national subsidy policy is stricter than that of 2025. It retains subsidies for refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters—products with higher demand. The policy also clarifies that only products meeting the highest energy efficiency level (Level 1) qualify for subsidies. Thirdly, the maximum subsidy per unit has decreased from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan. Although the reduction is modest, combined with the “Level 1 only” requirement, the actual incentive effect is weakened. Finally, the number of air conditioner subsidies has been reduced to curb market hoarding. Overall, the 2026 national subsidy policy is stricter and more targeted.

III. Galvanized Coil Prices Remain at Low Levels

Domestic galvanized coil prices have shown relatively stable trends since the start of 2026. From January to February, prices gradually declined from 3,917 yuan/ton to 3,888 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. This was primarily due to reduced market demand as end-users began taking holidays in late January. To recover capital, suppliers adjusted their quotations downward. Comparing current 2026 price levels to the same period in 2023-2025 reveals they are also at a four-year low. In early February 2025, prices stood at 4,141 yuan/ton, 163 yuan/ton higher than the current 2026 level. Prices in 2023-2024 were consistently over 1,000 yuan/ton higher than the 2026 equivalent period. Continued price declines will further compress manufacturers' profit margins, forcing production cuts.

IV. Significant Inventory Pressure

After entering the second half of 2025, the trend of domestic galvanized coil inventory diverged sharply from the same period in 2023-2024. Spot inventory continued to accumulate until December, when it began a slow decline. This was primarily because most traders proactively reduced order volumes in October-November, leading to fewer steel mill shipments arriving later and alleviating spot inventory pressure. In 2026, spot inventories remained persistently high. Compared to February 2025's 1.136 million tons, they were 92,100 tons higher; and 40,000-80,000 tons higher than February 2023-2024 levels. Considering that the 2026 Spring Festival falls later than in the previous three years, spot inventories may continue to accumulate further. At that point, excessive domestic spot inventory pressure for galvanized sheet and coil will become the primary obstacle to price increases. The significant pressure on galvanized coil stems primarily from substantial new production capacity additions in 2025, concentrated in North and South China. This supply-side expansion has increased market circulation resources.

Summary

Overall, the domestic galvanized coil market remains oversupplied, with end-user consumption growth significantly lagging behind supply expansion. Compounding this, some steel mills plan to commission new galvanized coil production lines in 2026, while adjustments to national subsidy policies may further increase market circulation resources. This convergence of factors will likely lead to continued inventory accumulation pressure. Key focus areas include post-Spring Festival inventory accumulation trends and macro policy adjustments in March-April 2026. Domestic galvanized coil prices are expected to remain under downward pressure through March.

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