According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from February 6th to 13th (as of 10:00), the price of methanol at East China ports in China fell from 2,223 RMB/ton to around 2,201 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.97% during the period, a decrease of 1.89% month-on-month, and a decrease of 15.46% year-on-year. The domestic methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The unloading of foreign vessels increased slightly month-on-month, and the methanol inventory at ports accumulated slightly. The trading atmosphere in the coastal market gradually weakened as the Spring Festival approached, and prices mainly fluctuated within a narrow range.

As of the close of trading on February 12, methanol futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The most active methanol futures contract, 2605, opened at 2,254 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,259 RMB/ton, a low of 2,230 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,231 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 495,670 lots, open interest was 758,354 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,349 lots.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of February 13:

On the cost side, downstream coal producers have largely completed their pre-holiday stockpiling as the Spring Festival approaching, and prices are expected to remain stable with minor adjustments. The impact of costs is mixed.

On the demand side, profits in the glacial acetic acid and MTBE industries declined. This was due to increased freight rates in some regions ahead of the holiday, and restocking demand from downstream users leading to price increases in certain areas, resulting in a slight passive decrease in enterprise production profits. Most downstream products were affected by methanol prices, making the methanol demand side bearish.

On the supply side, Anhui Huayi's plant underwent maintenance; Anhui Huayi's plant resumed operation; overall losses exceeded recovery, resulting in reduced output and decreased capacity utilization. These factors negatively impacted the methanol market.

On the international market, as of the close of trading on February 12, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $322.5-323.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf Coast methanol market closed at 106.5-107.5 cents per gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at €298.5-299.5 per ton.

Market outlook:

While the approaching year-end saw some support from pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling, downstream transaction prices only increased by less than 100 RMB/ton. Currently, imported methanol supplies continue to decrease, coupled with rising expectations of maintenance shutdowns in the spring of 2026. According to analysts at SunSirs, the domestic methanol spot market is expected to remain range-bound and fluctuate.

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