Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell last week

According to SunSirs' commodity cobalt price analysis system: On February 6th, the price of cobalt was 417,400 RMB/ton, a fluctuating decrease compared to the price of 444,800 RMB/ton on February 1st, a drop of 6.16%; compared to the price of 462,100 RMB/ton on January 1st, it also showed a fluctuating decrease, a drop of 9.67%. The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo had increased the expected supply in the cobalt market, while the decline in new energy vehicle sales in January reduced demand. The combination of increased supply and decreased demand had led to a fluctuating decline in cobalt prices.

Cobalt market supply trends

CMOC Tenke Fungurume Mining, a subsidiary of China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (CMOC), the world's second-largest cobalt producer, had officially commenced the first shipment sampling under the new export quota system. With the continued progress of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, expectations for future cobalt supply were recovering. Production at Indonesian projects of companies such as Huayou Cobalt and GEM was steadily increasing. Indonesia plans to impose a 1.5%-2% royalty tax on associated cobalt by July 2026, which will increase cobalt mining costs in the long term and stimulate cobalt mining and exports in the short term. The cobalt market is experiencing a short-term increase in supply.

Cobalt market demand trends

Affected by the market slowdown during the Spring Festival holiday, the high base of last year, and policy changes, overall sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) declined significantly month-on-month in January 2026. The Chinese NEV market in January 2026 showed characteristics of an overall decline in volume, a widespread month-on-month decrease, and divergent year-on-year trends. Wholesale sales were approximately 800,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of over 15% and a month-on-month decrease of approximately 40%. The decline in NEV sales led to a decrease in demand for cobalt.

Market Overview and Future Outlook

According to data analysts at SunSirs, cobalt prices continued their downward trend in February, albeit slightly. The significant decline in the production and sales of new energy vehicles led to a decrease in demand for cobalt, resulting in a poor outlook for future cobalt market growth. This, coupled with the expected recovery of cobalt supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo and increased supply from Indonesia, contributed to the weak performance of the cobalt market before the Lunar New Year. Cobalt prices remained weak and consolidated before the holiday.With the resumption of production after the holiday, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate upwards, but prices fell back after a large influx of cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo arrived in April.

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