In 2025, corn prices bottomed out and rebounded amid tight supply-demand balance and policy support, with the core range projected at 2,000-2,350 RMB/ton for the year, showing an overall trend of rising first and then falling. The annual low occurred in early January, with a national average price of approximately ¥2,088/ton. The peak was reached on July 4th, averaging ¥2,443/ton nationwide, resulting in a price differential of ¥355/ton between the highest and lowest points.

The 2025 corn market can be broadly divided into two phases: a predominantly upward trend from January to June, followed by a fluctuating downward trajectory after July. The first half of 2025 saw market momentum kick off after the Spring Festival, with a “stepwise” upward trajectory. Overall, both supply-demand dynamics and policy factors bolstered corn prices, leading to significant gains during this period.

Phase 1: Rise – Post-Spring Festival to early March. Policy stimulus and regulatory reserve purchases drove corn prices upward. Second Phase: Stable Period (Mid-March to Mid-April) Feed mills began substituting wheat, keeping corn prices within a narrow range with limited fluctuations. Third Phase: Uptrend (Late April to Mid-May) Grain supplies in producing regions concentrated in traders' hands, who maintained strong price-supporting intentions, tightening market supply. Coupled with expectations of reduced wheat production, both wheat and corn prices rose simultaneously. Fourth Phase: Stable Period (Mid-May to Early June) After mid-May, as wheat harvest approached, traders faced another peak shipping period. Grain circulation accelerated, easing market supply. Prices stabilized after a brief dip, maintaining narrow fluctuations within a range through late May. Phase 5: Uptrend (Mid-to-Late June). Northern China's wheat harvest peaked in mid-June, reducing trader shipments. Combined with rainy weather, market supply tightened. Simultaneously, as traders' remaining stocks dwindled, bullish market expectations intensified, driving prices upward to new annual highs.

‌Prices peaked in early July 2025 before entering a fluctuating downward trend. From July to August, suppressed by imported corn auctions and wheat substitution, prices entered a seasonal decline as spring corn from North China gradually hit the market by mid-August. By October, nationwide expectations of a bumper harvest materialized, accelerating the price decline significantly in early October. Persistent rainfall during the harvest season in North China adversely affected corn quality, leading to a surge in wet and damaged corn supplies in the region. Concurrently, corn from Northeast China began entering the market, easing supply pressures and driving prices lower. In November, corn prices bottomed out temporarily. Farmers became more reluctant to sell, and with limited carryover of old-crop corn, increased outflows from Northeast China strengthened market support. Prices gradually rebounded.

2026 Outlook:

Corn prices in 2026 are projected to show limited fluctuation. The lowest price point may exceed 2025's trough, while the peak is likely to fall below 2025's high. Trading operations will become more challenging, with overall profit margins narrowing and earnings potentially lower than in 2025. Key focus areas for 2026 include logistics developments in Northeast China and the pace of farmer grain sales.

By phase: Q1 2026 is expected to see predominantly weak price movements. Corn purchases and sales may temporarily stall in February due to the Spring Festival, with prices showing no significant adjustment. Post-holiday, feed enterprises will reduce restocking, and considering the pressure to sell grain after the holiday, prices will likely remain weak.

In Q2 2026, corn prices may rise, though gains will likely be limited. By April-May, farmers' grassroots grain sales will largely conclude, concentrating supplies in traders' hands. In June 2026, market corn supplies will be concentrated in the trading segment. Supported by factors like rising storage fees and interest costs, corn prices may have an opportunity to climb. Monitor channel inventory changes across segments at this time; low production area inventories could further bolster upward momentum.

After mid-August, as spring corn from the Two Lakes region enters the market and focus shifts to new-crop corn, market operations remain relatively rational. Key factors influencing corn prices post-August include changes in new-crop corn planting area, yield, and quality. Following late September, the domestic new-crop corn purchasing and sales cycle begins. Effective market supply will be influenced by grassroots production estimates and farmers' grain sales pace. Monitor grassroots sales dynamics and the intensity of government-led grain procurement and storage policies.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on February 6, SunSirs' corn benchmark price stood at CNY2,267.14  per ton, marking a 0.19% decrease compared to the beginning of the month (CNY 2,271.43  per ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.