Chris Six, an agricultural economist in Missouri, stated that the outlook for the 2026 soybean market is neither dire nor optimistic. Several external factors will impact soybean prices.
The 2025 soybean harvest season concluded with high yields. A recent USDA report indicates Missouri's soybean production outperformed both 2023 and 2024 levels. Despite the impressive reported yields, Ben Brown, an extension agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, notes significant regional variations in output. This disparity led to high expectations among farmers, resulting in disappointment. Looking ahead to the 2026 crop season, Brown identified two primary factors shaping soybean prospects: weather and international trade. One positive factor for soybeans is increased biofuel proposals.
Drought Impact on Soybeans
“Anyone want to talk about their soybean yields? No, really nobody, right? It's been tough in Missouri,” Brown told a group of crop growers at the University of Missouri Extension Crop Management Conference in December.
Most of the state experienced late-season drought, resulting in smaller beans and lower yields. According to Zach Leasor, a climatologist at the University of Missouri Extension, Missouri endured its second-driest August on record since 1909.
Looking ahead to 2026, Brown and other soybean farmers emphasized that early planting this year is crucial. A panel of three Missouri soybean farmers confirmed that planting between early and mid-April helped boost yields in 2025.
International Trade and Soybeans
Brown noted that international trade and politics significantly influence U.S. soybean price trends. He pointed out that a tweet by President Donald Trump on X (formerly Twitter) in August caused soybean prices to jump nearly 40 cents.
Similar posts and international tariffs on products have impacted the U.S. market.
Brown remarked, "We've seen tariffs imposed on Brazilian products due to Canada smuggling fentanyl to Brazil. We've also seen tariffs added to some Brazilian products because of the situation involving Brazil's former president. We've also seen tariffs imposed on some Indian products because India is buying Russian oil. None of these are things the U.S. agricultural sector can control, right? Yet our products and prices are affected."
Brown added that during the recent government shutdown, the U.S. and China reached an agreement for U.S. soybean exports to China, though little information about the deal is available beyond a White House press release.
Brown stated: “By the end of 2025, soybean production will increase by 12 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 441 million bushels. That's what the press release said. Then, Treasury Secretary Scott Bechtold stated at a press conference, ‘We expect to achieve this target by the end of February.’”
Brown also noted the agreement includes a commitment to supply 25 million bushels of soybeans annually over the next three years, totaling over 919 million bushels.
Brown stated: “Despite this agreement, tariffs on our soybeans remain at 13%. They were reduced from 23% to 13%; keep in mind tariffs on Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are only 3%.”
Biofuel Proposal
Brown remains hopeful that biofuel proposals could boost demand for soybean oil and other vegetable oils.
He said, “Whether it's soybean oil, canola oil, or sunflower oil, policy-driven demand for these vegetable oils is increasing. That's partly why we're starting to see soybean oil or canola oil entering Missouri.”
Overall, Brown does not anticipate a significant increase in soybean acreage by 2026.
“There are some positive factors emerging right now,” he said. “I think once these biofuel regulations are finalized, they will have a positive impact on both the soybean and corn markets. But currently, we only have a proposal and are awaiting final guidance. Financially, as I mentioned earlier, the 2026 profit margins won't be terrible, but they won't be ideal either.”
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