Despite a recovery in U.S. soybean supplies, China is expected to increase imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026.

Record production and competitive pricing are driving Brazilian soybean imports, further cementing South America's dominance in China's market—the world's largest soybean importer.

Trade sources indicate that China's private soybean processors are locking in deals for Brazilian soybean shipments starting in February. As Brazil's harvest peaks, ample supply is putting downward pressure on prices.

Such procurement activity may impact demand for U.S. soybeans when the North American export season begins in September.

Since Sino-U.S. relations thawed in late October, nearly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybean purchases have been exclusively handled by state-owned grain buyers Sinograin and COFCO, as private traders have shied away from higher U.S. prices.

“China's current U.S. soybean purchases are limited in scale, sufficient only to maintain positive political momentum ahead of the April summit between the two countries' leaders,” said the China director at Eurasia Group, a global political risk consultancy.

An industry insider at a major multinational corporation noted: “Brazil's exports to China from March to June may exceed last year's levels during the same period. During this timeframe, Brazilian soybean prices are significantly lower than U.S. soybeans.”

Since late October, Chinese state-owned enterprises have procured approximately 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, though this figure remains far below China's projected 2024/25 crop year purchase volume of around 23 million metric tons.

Traders anticipate no further increase in U.S. soybean orders, citing higher prices and expected bumper harvests in major producers like Brazil and Argentina.

Adelson Gasparin, a grain broker in southern Brazil, stated: “Our harvest keeps prices below U.S. levels, a situation that will persist until September when new U.S. beans hit the market.” He expects China to maintain its current level of Brazilian soybean imports.

As harvests accelerate, Brazilian prices may face greater pressure. “I think the spread will widen further,” said Dan Basse, head of AgResource.

Agricultural consultancy Agroconsult forecasts Brazil's soybean production will hit a record 182.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season.

Marcela Marini, senior agricultural analyst at Rabobank, expects Brazil's soybean exports to China to reach approximately 85 million tons between September 2025 and August 2026, an increase of 6 million tons compared to the same period in previous years.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.