Observing China's mineral resources industry at the beginning of 2026, one can clearly perceive an emerging main line of change: The development of the mining industry is increasingly embedded in a composite system of multiple conditions, including law-based management, national resource security, green and low-carbon transformation, and new technological revolution.

The newly revised "Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" came into effect on July 1, 2025, making the legal attributes of mining rights, resource protection responsibilities, and development constraints more clear. The construction of green mines, intelligent transformation, guarantee of key minerals, low-carbon requirements, and integration with new energy are becoming realities that enterprises must face in project promotion, financing arrangements, and compliance management. The development model of mining enterprises that simply relies on resource endowments or scale advantages can no longer meet the new institutional and market requirements.

Based on various policy documents, law enforcement developments, judicial practices, and typical project cases in 2025, this article summarizes and analyzes ten major trends that may emerge in China's mineral resources industry in 2026 from the perspectives of law, policy, and technology.

The asset attribute of mineral rights has become more prominent

The exploration of the "separation of ownership certificate and operation permit" for mining rights at the local practice level has provided a sample for the implementation of the newly revised "Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China". Taking the Wentang geothermal project in Pingshan County, Shijiazhuang City as an example, the local competent department of natural resources simultaneously issues a real estate ownership certificate (mining right) and a mining license to the right holder: among them, the real estate ownership certificate is used to confirm the property right attribute and ownership scope of the mining right, and the mining license serves as the administrative license certificate for resource development activities, corresponding to the two different functions of right confirmation and administrative supervision respectively. This practice, based on the new law, has reduced the uncertainty caused by the long-term interweaving of right confirmation and administrative approval, and enhanced the asset security guarantee for mining investors.

From a legal perspective, the "separation of rights and certificates" helps enhance the stability and predictability of mining rights, providing a clearer property rights basis for mining rights to be evaluated, financed, guaranteed, and traded as assets. At the same time, under the unified real estate registration system, the property right attributes of mining rights are publicly registered, which is conducive to reducing the risk of ownership disputes and creating institutional conditions for subsequent changes, extensions, and transfers of rights. It can be predicted that with the promotion of similar practices in more regions and for more types of minerals, mining rights will no longer be regarded merely as objects of administrative management, but will gradually become production factors with more distinct asset attributes. This will lay a legal and administrative foundation for mining capital operations, industry integration, and long-term resource allocation.

However, on the path of transformation towards the separation of rights and certificates, local detailed rules have not yet been fully unified, and enterprises may face challenges in the short term regarding policy connection and transition in such links as mineral rights registration, transfer, and mortgage.

Resource security has been elevated to a more binding national strategy

The newly revised "Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" adds a chapter on "Mineral Resources Reserves and Emergency Response", incorporates the construction of a strategic mineral reserve system into legal mandatory requirements, and further clarifies that mineral resources management is an important part of national security.

As an important resource succession area in China, the southwest region has achieved remarkable mineral exploration results in recent years. Songpan County, Sichuan Province, has proven the largest gold mine in the province; Leibo County has explored over 130 million tons of phosphate rock resources; and Qingchuan County has even explored 6 million tons of manganese ore within one square kilometer. Resource discoveries in Yunnan are equally notable: an ultra-large ion-adsorbed rare earth deposit found in Honghe Prefecture is expected to become China's largest medium-heavy rare earth deposit, while the Yangchang phosphate rock deposit, with a resource quantity of 4.3 billion tons, has leapt to become Asia's largest single phosphate rock deposit. These discoveries have increased resource reserves and optimized the spatial distribution of China's mineral resources.

Meanwhile, the newly discovered resources are not all put into development immediately. Instead, they are systematically incorporated into the overall "exploration, production, supply, storage, and sales" system in accordance with national strategic needs. Some high-grade, easily exploitable mineral deposits may be designated as mineral reserves and temporarily not developed as strategic reserves; some already built mines may flexibly switch between ensuring supply and market regulation by referring to the capacity reserve model in the coal industry; and forming production reserves by purchasing and storing mined mineral products is a direct means to deal with sudden market fluctuations. For example, coal mines in Qinghai and Xinjiang have become the country's first batch of capacity reserve projects, and Sichuan Province has also clearly stated in its plans to establish a multi-level reserve system covering both mineral deposits and mineral products. This indicates that China's resource security guarantee is upgrading to refined management and control.

Admittedly, the construction of a resource security guarantee system also faces a series of challenges. Some proven high-quality mineral producing areas may be included in the reserve system, which will slow down their development pace, and enterprises' early investment may face the risks of uncertainty and prolonged investment recovery period. At the same time, high-difficulty projects such as deep mineral exploration and marine mining require large investment scales and long cycles, placing higher demands on enterprises' capital strength and risk-bearing capacity. It is even possible that some resource-rich regions may restrict resource outflow through local legislation, increasing the difficulty of cross-regional resource allocation and creating new local protection barriers.

Green mines are gradually becoming a threshold for the survival of mining enterprises.

If the construction of green mines in the past was still in the stage of conceptual advocacy, then in 2026, it will gradually evolve into the bottom line for enterprises' survival. The Ministry of Natural Resources clearly requires that by the end of 2028, 90% of large mines and 80% of medium-sized mines in the country must meet the green mine standards. As a key starting year, 2026 will become an important turning point when the construction of green mines becomes an obligation for enterprises.

Previously, the Ministry of Natural Resources, together with the National Forestry and Grassland Administration, issued the "Notice on the Comprehensive Implementation of Green Exploration in the New Round of Strategic Action for Prospecting Breakthroughs" to comprehensively promote green exploration; and jointly issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Construction of Green Mines" with 7 departments including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment to accelerate the construction of green mines. All provinces are also releasing local implementation plans. According to the data at the beginning of 2025, more than 4,700 national and provincial-level green mines have been built across the country.

In Ya'an, Sichuan Province, the ecological restoration project of abandoned mines in the Giant Panda National Park area has become a model for green transformation. Industrial and mining wastelands have gradually been converted into ecological green spaces, significantly improving the living environment in and around the mining areas and enhancing the living environment quality of giant pandas and other rare species. Guizhou has built 347 green mines at or above the provincial level, forming large-scale and systematic green mine clusters. The abandoned mine restoration project in the Nanpan and Beipan Rivers has adopted a new technology of modified glutinous rice-based vegetation layer restoration, which has effectively solved the problem of soil fixation on steep slopes. A total of 538 map spots have been treated, with a restored area of approximately 580 hectares, effectively improving the living environment and strengthening the ecological security barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the Pearl River.

However, the path to green transformation is full of challenges. According to calculations based on industry big data and practical cases, the initial investment in building a medium-sized green mine is usually 30% to 50% higher than that of a traditional mine. The huge cost of environmental protection investment makes many small and medium-sized mining enterprises hesitate. At the same time, the inconsistency in local green mine evaluation standards also brings additional compliance costs to enterprises operating across regions. In addition, the new law strengthens the definition and implementation of responsibilities for ecological environment restoration of historically left mines. Some enterprises may face追偿 for environmental debts from several years ago. This uncertainty brings new risks to industry investment. Therefore, when enterprises carry out mineral rights mergers and acquisitions, due diligence must cover the accrual and payment of ecological restoration funds, otherwise the acquirer may face huge environmental compensation liabilities.

Intelligence will substantially improve mining productivity

Following mechanization and automation, intelligence is becoming the third technological revolution in the development of the mining industry. In 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources released the "First List of Upgrading, R&D, Promotion and Replacement of Mineral Exploration Equipment", and the National Mine Safety Inspection Bureau publicly solicited opinions on the "Key R&D Catalog of Mine Intelligent Robots", covering 80 types of intelligent equipment, pointing out the direction for intelligent transformation at the policy level.

At the practical level, the construction of intelligent mines has gradually moved towards large-scale application. The commercial operation of 100 driverless electric truck fleets at the Yimin Open-pit Mine in Inner Mongolia shows that driverless technology has been put into practice. The deployment of 5G-Advanced networks will gradually address the pain point of high latency in underground mines, providing conditions for remote control.These technological breakthroughs not only improve production efficiency, but also significantly reduce personnel safety risks.

Sichuan has demonstrated regional characteristics in its intelligent transformation. Sichuan Provincial Natural Resources Investment Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Huawei and jointly released a white paper on the blueprint for smart mine construction; Neijiang City launched the "five-type service" model, which promotes the full coverage and application of intelligent systems in green mines through on-site guidance. Chongqing has established an AI Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources to deepen the application of artificial intelligence in geological prospecting, disaster early warning and other fields, exploring an innovative development path integrating industry, education, research and application.

Intelligent transformation also faces many challenges. The acceleration of technological iteration makes enterprises face the risk of becoming outdated as soon as they invest, and expensive intelligent equipment may depreciate in a short time due to technological updates. Data security has also become a new concern, as sensitive information such as mine production data and geological data is stored centrally, making it a potential target for cyber attacks. In addition, the mismatch between the skills of traditional miners and the operational requirements of intelligent systems has led to a structural shortage of talents, forcing enterprises to invest a lot of resources in employee training and skill transformation.

Key mineral supply chains accelerate parallel domestic and overseas layout

Against the backdrop of the evolving international situation and the restructuring of the global supply chain, the independent and controllable supply of critical minerals has become an important part of the national strategy. In 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments jointly issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)", which clearly sets out specific goals for promoting the development of resources such as copper, aluminum, and lithium. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce has imposed export controls on technologies related to the entire rare earth industry chain, sending a clear signal to strengthen resource security guarantees.

Breakthroughs in domestic mineral exploration have laid a solid foundation for the independent strategy. The global share of lithium ore reserves in Sichuan has jumped from 6% to 16.5%, and its ranking has risen from sixth in the world to second, which provides resource guarantees for the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. The newly added gold resources in Yumen, Gansu exceed 40 tons, and a large strontium mine has been discovered in Lishui, Jiangsu. These discoveries together form a multi-point support pattern for China's mineral resource guarantee.

In terms of overseas layout, Chinese mining enterprises have demonstrated the unity of strategic resolve and flexibility. Zijin Mining completed the 100% equity delivery of the RG gold mine in Kazakhstan, China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. acquired the Cascabel gold mine in Ecuador, and Ganfeng Lithium completed the 100% equity acquisition of the Goulamina lithium mine in Mali. This series of actions indicates the acceleration of the global layout of Chinese mining enterprises. It is worth noting that the overseas strategy of Chinese mining enterprises is undergoing subtle changes, shifting from full control to more flexible cooperation models such as equity participation and exclusive sales, and from sensitive North American assets to countries jointly building the "Belt and Road Initiative". This strategic adjustment reflects the survival wisdom of enterprises in the complex international environment.

However, geopolitical risks remain a constant shadow. The inclusion of copper in the U.S. critical minerals list, the EU's implementation of the CBAM carbon tariff, as well as ESG standards and FCPA investigations, have exposed Chinese enterprises to more scrutiny and barriers when acquiring resources overseas. The variability in policies of some resource-rich countries has also increased investment risks. For example, the case where the Guinean government revoked 51 mining licenses serves as a reminder for enterprises to pay attention to political risks in overseas investments. At the domestic level, the potential periodic oversupply of lithium, nickel and other varieties also exposes enterprises to the risk of market price fluctuations.

AI and military industry fuel the upsurge of specific minerals

Against the backdrop of a new round of technological transformation and international competition, the artificial intelligence industry is expanding rapidly. Coupled with the rising demand for high-end manufacturing and security, this is reshaping the demand structure for specific minerals related to it. Unlike new energy, which mainly drives the demand for minerals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt, AI computing power infrastructure, power systems, and high-end equipment manufacturing have created a more rigid demand for minerals such as copper, rare earths, and graphite.

From the perspective of the industrial chain logic, the construction of computing power centers and data infrastructure not only relies on chips, but also highly depends on stable power supply and a large amount of basic metal input. The superposition of electricity demand from new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, and data centers has driven the continuous growth of global copper demand, with global inventories at historically low levels and medium- and long-term supply tending to be tight. Against this backdrop, basic metals such as copper are gradually transforming from traditional industrial raw materials into key resources supporting the operation of the digital economy.

Policy-level guidance also confirms this trend. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025-2027)", which clearly proposes to enhance resource guarantee capabilities and industrial chain resilience, reflecting the country's repositioning of key basic materials.

Beyond AI-related demands, the application weight of some minerals in high-end equipment manufacturing and security assurance systems is also continuously increasing. At the international level, the United States has listed nickel, copper, and rare earths as critical minerals, and is strengthening the stability of domestic supply chains through policy tools to cope with the growing energy and material demands brought about by AI and related industries. Domestically, the development progress of resources such as natural uranium is also representative. The "Guoyou-1" demonstration project has successfully produced its first batch of products, showing that the fundamental role of critical minerals in ensuring national energy and industrial security is becoming more prominent.

For mining enterprises, future resource allocation and merger and acquisition decisions need to pay more attention to the functional positioning of mineral species in industrial systems related to AI, high-end manufacturing and security, rather than just short-term prices or reserve scales.

DLE reshapes the cost and supply boundaries of lithium resources

Among the many directions in the evolution of global mining technology, the transformation of lithium resource development methods has attracted particular attention. After years of research and development, pilot testing, and engineering verification, Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) is gradually moving from demonstration and validation to the stage of commercial scaling. Based on the project plans disclosed by multiple enterprises and industry research judgments, 2026 is expected to be a window for the concentrated verification of the large-scale feasibility of DLE commercial projects, and may become a key stage for the industry to form a clearer understanding of this technical path.

Compared with traditional salt lake lithium extraction processes that rely on natural evaporation, some DLE routes have shown the potential in pilot and demonstration projects to shorten the extraction cycle to several weeks and significantly improve the recovery rate. The "Direct Lithium Extraction Technology from Brine in Chaerhan Salt Lake" project of the Central Research Institute of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. has successfully produced battery-grade lithium carbonate with a purity of 99.80%. The "4+2" 10,000-ton lithium salt project in China's salt lakes was successfully put into operation in Golmud City, Haixi Prefecture, Qinghai Province, and the 10,000-ton lithium salt project in Zabuye Salt Lake, Tibet completed the assessment and entered a stable operation stage, marking that the salt lake lithium extraction process is gradually realizing industrial application. Although there are significant differences in different brine systems and process paths, research and operation experience show that there is room for growth in the exploitable output of lithium resources.

Meanwhile, the commercialization of DLE technology still faces multiple uncertainties. Some projects are still in the pilot or initial demonstration stage, and the process stability, material lifespan, and impurity control under large-scale continuous operation conditions still need to be verified; the impact of lithium extraction from salt lakes on water resource allocation and ecological carrying capacity also places higher demands on environmental assessment and supervision. From a market perspective, if DLE is promoted on a large scale in the next few years, the new supply may put pressure on lithium prices, and high-cost production capacity will face the risk of being phased out. At the same time, the patent competition surrounding core processes and key materials, combined with the flow of technical talents, will make the protection of intellectual property rights and trade secrets a legal risk point for enterprises.

Battery recycling is gradually becoming a new path for resource supply

As the first batch of power batteries for new energy vehicles enter the retirement period, the battery recycling industry will usher in new growth in 2026. This emerging field, known as "urban mines", is moving from policy advocacy to commercial viability and becoming an important source of resource supply.

In September 2024, the first intelligent lithium battery recycling factory in China - the Jereh Lithium Battery Resource Recycling Zhengzhou Demonstration Factory - was officially put into operation. In May 2025, a new energy battery recycling and remanufacturing project was signed in Neijiang, Sichuan Province. A company from Hong Kong plans to invest 70 million US dollars and occupy 50 mu of land to build a production line for 60,000 tons of plastic products per year, a production line for 40,000 tons of metal products per year, and a production line for 20,000 tons of lithium batteries per year, to form a "plastic-metal-electricity" circular industrial chain. These explorations have created new business opportunities and also built an ecosystem for the sustainable utilization of resources.

The rise of the battery recycling industry faces three major challenges. The fragmentation of recycling channels leads to unstable raw material supply, with scattered sources and inconsistent standards for retired batteries, increasing the operational difficulties for recycling enterprises. There are risks in choosing technical routes; each route, such as hydrometallurgical recycling and physical recycling, has its own advantages and disadvantages, and wrong choices by enterprises may result in investment losses. The pressure of environmental compliance continues to increase. Links such as battery dismantling and black powder treatment carry pollution risks, placing higher demands on enterprises' environmental management capabilities.

Merger and reorganization have become an important way of resource allocation

Against the backdrop of heightened requirements for resource security, environmental protection, and technical thresholds, mergers and reorganizations in the mining sector are accelerating. The wave of mergers and acquisitions in 2026 will further deepen, driving the industry to form a new ecosystem characterized by "state-owned enterprises leading + private enterprises specializing in refinement."

The establishment of Guizhou Aluminum Group is a typical example of this trend. As a leading provincial aluminum enterprise, Guizhou Aluminum Group will focus on bauxite development and utilization, deep processing of aluminum resources, and green transportation as its main businesses, and strive to build an integrated industrial development pattern covering bauxite development and utilization, supply chain trade, deep processing of aluminum resources, and green mine technical services. This government-led industrial integration reflects the shift in resource management thinking from decentralized development to intensive utilization. The establishment of such an industry giant will bring about an amplifying effect of "one driving N".

The integration path in Sichuan reflects the combination of market and strategy. Sichuan Provincial Natural Resources Investment Group and Pangang Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement to promote the integration of the entire vanadium-titanium resource industry chain. In recent years, Sichuan has actively promoted the high-quality development of green and low-carbon advantageous industries such as lithium batteries. A large number of leading enterprises in the upper and lower reaches of the lithium battery industry have settled in and expanded production, forming a complete industrial chain from lithium ore resource development, upstream materials and battery component production to battery recycling and utilization, and initially building a world-class lithium battery industry base. Such a strategic alliance based on industrial synergy will achieve an integration effect of "1+1>2" through resource sharing and technical complementarity.

Industry consolidation has also brought new risk points. Excessive concentration of resources may lead to distortions in market prices, squeezing the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises. Challenges such as cultural integration and adjustment of management mechanisms after state-owned enterprises merge private enterprises deserve attention. Moreover, the model of large mining enterprises expanding through high leverage may transmit debt risks to the entire industrial chain, forming hidden dangers of systemic risks. At the same time, with the establishment of super-large groups, enterprises should also pay attention to the risk of anti-monopoly review and actively fulfill their obligations of declaring concentration of undertakings.

The path for the coordinated development of the mining industry and new energy is becoming increasingly clear

Under the guidance of the "dual carbon" goals, the integrated development of the mining industry and new energy is creating a new model of industrial collaboration.

The practice in Inner Mongolia provides a typical example of "comprehensive utilization of mining land + on-site energy supply". The Hesigewula South Open-pit Coal Mine in Xilingol League has promoted distributed photovoltaic projects in the dump, utilizing existing spaces such as subsided areas and dumps in the mining area to develop photovoltaics, realizing the comprehensive utilization of land and improving the cleanliness and stability of energy supply in the mining area. The State Energy Group's Turpan Tuokexun Heishan Mining Area in Xinjiang has built self-owned photovoltaic power generation facilities in the dump, and is equipped with a lithium iron phosphate electrochemical energy storage system, which serves the energy consumption and fluctuation regulation of the mining area through self-generation and self-consumption. "Mining area photovoltaic + energy storage" will effectively peak shaving and valley filling and improve energy supply resilience.

The salt lake industry in Qinghai is developing towards an integrated model of "green electricity - high energy-consuming processes - low-carbon products". As a core project for Qinghai to build a world-class salt lake industrial base, China Salt Lake has simultaneously launched a green electricity coupling upgrading plan. The put-into-use of photovoltaic direct supply systems and solar thermal collection projects has not only reduced environmental pressure but also lowered production costs.

It should be acknowledged that industrial integration still faces practical challenges. The high investment and long payback period in new energy and energy storage may increase the cash flow pressure on enterprises; the transformation and grid connection of mining area power systems, fire protection and safety regulations, as well as subsequent operation and maintenance capabilities will increase the complexity of the project; at the same time, changes in green power trading, green certificates and electricity price mechanisms may also affect the certainty of project returns. Enterprises need to hedge against policy and market risks through contract design, project staging and technical route selection.

Conclusion

Taken together, these changes—ranging from the international situation and national security to green and low-carbon constraints, technological applications, and further to mergers, acquisitions, reorganizations, and industrial integration—are influencing the development logic of mining projects and the business operations of enterprises from various aspects.

The real challenge for enterprises does not lie in a single policy or a change in a single technology, but in how to adjust their development ideas and operational structure under the circumstance of multiple concurrent trends. The earlier they complete the transformation and establish a management system that emphasizes compliance, efficiency and sustainability, the more likely they are to occupy a relatively favorable position in future competitions.

In this sense, 2026 is more like a connecting point that links the past and the future. The basic direction of the industry has gradually become clear, and the subsequent differences will depend more on the enterprises' own judgment and execution capabilities.

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