“During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the steel industry will continue to deepen supply-side structural reforms, advance capacity management, and reduce output by over 100 million tons,” stated Zhao Mingge, President of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), at the association's 13th Membership Conference. He noted that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, capacity management in the steel sector will focus on “controlling new capacity, optimizing existing capacity, promoting mergers and acquisitions, and facilitating orderly exit.” Adhering to market-oriented and rule-of-law principles, the industry will strictly close new capacity entry points, streamline channels for phasing out outdated capacity, comprehensively clean up and decisively eliminate illegally added capacity, and drive continuous optimization of the industry's capacity structure.

By 2025, the supply-demand imbalance in China's steel sector will intensify further. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, national crude steel output in 2025 is projected at 961 million tons, a 4.4% year-on-year decrease; pig iron output at 836 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year; and steel product output at 1.446 billion tons, equivalent to apparent crude steel consumption of 829 million tons, a 7.1% year-on-year decline.

Despite the decline in domestic consumption, steel exports reached a record high in 2025. According to the General Administration of Customs, China exported 119 million tons of steel in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The average export price was $694 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. By product type, compared to 2020, plate exports surged over 100% in 2025. Exports of thick plates, hot-rolled thin-wide strips, hot-rolled sheets, reinforcing bars, and large structural steel all increased by more than fivefold.

Meanwhile, the steel industry's profitability improved in 2025. According to CISA statistics, key statistical enterprises recorded cumulative operating revenue of RMB 6.1 trillion, down 3.1% year-on-year; operating costs totaled RMB 5.7 trillion, down 4.5% year-on-year; and total profits reached RMB 115.1 billion, up 140% year-on-year. The core steel business alone generated profits of RMB 44.5 billion, achieving a turnaround from losses to gains.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the steel industry accelerated mergers and acquisitions while maintaining cumulative production cuts exceeding 100 million tons. By 2025, Baowu and Baosteel took proactive steps to voluntarily control production and reduce inventory, leading to improved supply-demand conditions in Xinjiang's steel market. Guided by enhanced industrial synergy, deep integration and restructuring unfolded: Baowu merged with Xingtai Iron & Steel and made strategic investments in Shandong Iron & Steel; Ansteel restructured Benxi Steel and Linggang Steel; CITIC Special Steel partnered with Nanjing Iron & Steel; Jianlong reorganized Xining Special Steel; and Jingye acquired Yingkou Medium Plate. These moves further optimized industrial layout and elevated industry concentration. By 2025, the top 10 steel companies achieved a concentration rate of 43.1%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points compared to 2020.

Regarding the industry's development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Zhao Mingge also outlined multiple reform initiatives. In capacity management, efforts will continue to focus on “controlling new capacity, optimizing existing capacity, promoting mergers and acquisitions, and facilitating orderly exit.” Market-based and rule-of-law approaches will be adopted to standardize capacity management and eliminate illegal and non-compliant capacity. Concurrently, production control methods will be optimized, data governance strengthened, and a production control mechanism based on standards such as energy consumption, environmental protection, quality, and safety will be explored to achieve precise alignment between capacity and demand.

For exports and green development, the approach will be guided by “promoting high-end products, stabilizing neighboring markets, and enforcing strict oversight.” This includes further optimizing export structures, rigorously implementing export license management for certain steel products, and advancing high-quality export trade development. Efforts will continue to drive green and low-carbon transformation, ensuring all surplus steel capacity completes ultra-low emission upgrades. A dynamic public disclosure mechanism for ultra-low emission compliance will be established, facilitating the transition from “dual control of energy consumption” to “dual control of carbon emissions.”

Regarding industrial synergy and market expansion, efforts will deepen the integration of industrial and urban development, transforming traditional “steel production hubs” into “steel construction hubs” and cultivating new growth points in urban steel applications. Collaboration with downstream sectors such as shipbuilding, transportation, agricultural machinery, and heavy equipment will be strengthened to actively explore new markets and applications for steel products. This will promote coordinated development across the industrial chain and enhance the sector's resilience to risks.

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