On January 27, data indicated that the average spot price for low-carbon ferromanganese (C0.7) stood at 9,550 yuan per ton, marking a daily increase of 100 yuan per ton, with prices showing a steady upward trend. Driven by the dual impacts of accelerated industry-wide green transformation and persistently tight upstream raw material supply, the supply-demand dynamics in the low-carbon ferromanganese market are undergoing profound changes, with price movements and industry competition logic being simultaneously restructured.
From the supply side, the market currently faces multiple overlapping constraints. Global manganese ore production regions are experiencing persistent tightness in raw material supply due to extreme weather, cross-border logistics disruptions, and temporary production halts at some mines. Domestic manganese ore inventories at major ports remain at low levels, significantly constraining downstream smelting operations. Simultaneously, within China's core low-carbon ferro-manganese production zones, rising electricity costs, stricter environmental regulations, and normalized production restrictions have led to a decline in overall smelter operating rates. This has suppressed effective capacity utilization, further intensifying supply pressures in the spot market.
The demand side, however, exhibits new characteristics of structural growth, primarily driven by quality enhancement requirements stemming from industrial upgrading. The steel industry's accelerated shift toward high-strength, high-performance, and lightweight materials has driven sustained growth in demand for low-impurity, high-quality alloys like low-carbon ferro-manganese, making it the core force propelling market demand. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy vehicles, wind power equipment, and ultra-high voltage transmission continues to broaden the application scenarios for manganese alloys in non-steel fields, driving continuous optimization and upgrading of the overall demand structure.
Policy and environmental factors are increasingly shaping the market. Domestically, increasingly stringent environmental and energy consumption standards are accelerating the elimination of outdated and inefficient production capacity, driving supply-side optimization. Meanwhile, external factors such as international trade barriers and geopolitical shifts are prompting domestic enterprises to adjust their overseas procurement and market strategies. Concurrently, national regulatory measures like strategic stockpiling of critical mineral resources are influencing market supply-demand balance and price expectations.
The macroeconomic environment and cost dynamics provide robust support for prices. Exchange rate fluctuations triggered by global monetary policy adjustments directly impact import procurement costs for raw materials like manganese ore. Meanwhile, steady growth in domestic infrastructure investment provides solid fundamental support for demand in the steel and related downstream industries. From a cost perspective, rising prices for core production factors such as manganese ore and electricity have increased the production costs of low-carbon ferro-manganese, forming a crucial foundation for the strengthening of product prices.
Overall, the current price surge in low-carbon ferromanganese stems from the combined effects of rigid cost pressures and demand driven by industrial upgrading. In the short term, amid tight raw material supply and high costs, product prices are expected to remain strong. However, close attention must be paid to changes in downstream steel mills' profitability and their impact on procurement schedules and volumes for low-carbon ferromanganese. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, industry competition will increasingly center on resources and technology. Enterprises with stable upstream raw material supply channels and mastery of advanced low-carbon ferromanganese production technologies will gradually build core competitive advantages, likely leading to continued industry consolidation. Future market trends will primarily depend on the pace of supply recovery in major global manganese ore producing regions, as well as the actual progress of technological iteration and demand release in downstream high-end manufacturing sectors.
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