A recent nationwide cold snap has driven seasonal increases in daily power plant consumption, yet the market shows no clear signs of recovery. Coal prices at mine mouths and ports remain weak, with end-users continuing to purchase only for essential needs amid pervasive market caution. Although colder weather has stimulated some demand, the thermal coal market remains locked in a stalemate characterized by “demand support but lack of upward momentum” due to high inventories, stable long-term contract supplies, and declining industrial electricity consumption.

Mine Mouth Market: Sluggish Sales, Weakening Prices

Most mines in the Ordos region maintain normal production with stable supply. Despite cooling temperatures and pre-holiday stockpiling needs, traders remain cautious in procurement. Mine sales are mediocre, with prices trending stable to slightly weaker. Current mine-mouth prices (tax-inclusive):

- Q5500: ¥500-560/ton

- Q5000: ¥390-450/ton

- Q4500: ¥330-370/ton

Coal supply in Shaanxi remains stable, but market sentiment is weak. Several major mines in Yulin recently reduced prices by ¥10-30/ton, with some private mines following suit. Current quotes:

- Q5500: ¥520-545/ton

- Q5800: 545-570 RMB/ton

- Q6000: 570-600 RMB/ton

Overall transportation pace at mine mouths has slowed, with limited price support due to low downstream purchasing interest.

Port Market: Trading remains sluggish with slow inventory drawdown

Thermal coal prices in Bohai Rim ports continued weakening, with widespread price cuts and sparse transactions. Current port quotations:

- Q5500: ¥690-700/ton

- Q5000: ¥610-620/ton

- Q4500: ¥510-520/ton

As of January 20, inventory across eight Bohai Rim ports stood at 26.17 million tons, down 30,000 tons daily. Despite ongoing inventory drawdowns—though still above historical averages—power plants maintain coal reserves exceeding safety thresholds. This dampens market coal procurement enthusiasm, with purchases limited to rigid replenishment. The stalemate between port market suppliers and downstream buyers persists, suggesting prices will likely remain weak and volatile in the near term.

Downstream Demand: Daily Consumption Rises but Restocking Limited, Industrial Power Usage Declines

Recent cold weather has boosted daily coal consumption at power plants, with some end-users slightly accelerating procurement. However, overall:

- Power plant inventories remain within safe ranges, allowing controlled destocking;

- Most end-users continue prioritizing long-term contracts and inventory digestion, maintaining caution toward market coal;

- Only a few power plants with low inventory levels have shown increased purchasing intent.

As the Spring Festival approaches, some small and medium-sized enterprises in southern China are closing for holidays, leading to a decline in industrial power consumption demand. This limits the growth potential of power plant daily consumption. In non-power sectors, coal demand from the chemical industry remains stable, while other industries mostly engage in essential purchases, resulting in limited overall demand release.

Import Coal Market: Tight Quotations vs. Weakening Domestic Trade Create Stalemate

Imported thermal coal prices are under pressure. While Indonesian offshore quotations remain firm, domestic market prices have been edging lower, causing coastal power plants to slow their procurement pace. Currently, Q3800 coal for Panamax vessels is quoted at $49.5–51/ton FOB, but buyer acceptance is limited. Low-priced cargoes are scarce, resulting in sparse actual transactions as traders operate cautiously.

Market Outlook: Pre-Spring Festival Market to Remain Under Pressure, Prices More Likely to Fall Than Rise

Overall, the coal market lacks upward momentum in the latter half of the month, with prices expected to remain under pressure:

Demand Side: Industrial power consumption gradually declines as the Spring Festival approaches, limiting significant increases in power plant daily consumption and weakening restocking intentions.

Supply Side: Coal mine production remains stable, while transport volumes on the Daqin and Tanghu lines recover, boosting port intake.

Inventory Structure: Ample inventories across all sectors, with persistently high terminal stockpiles suppressing market purchasing sentiment.

Sentiment: Traders face inverted shipping costs, dampening dispatch willingness. However, pre-holiday shipping intent may strengthen as time progresses.

Thermal coal prices are expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern in the near term. As demand further weakens later, market coal prices will face continued downward pressure. Close attention should be paid to weather changes, the pace of port inventory drawdowns, and terminal coal consumption.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 23, the benchmark price of thermal coal, according to SunSirs.com, was 702.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the beginning of the month (707.50 RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.