Current market coal prices remain below the cost of some supplies, with most sellers maintaining a firm stance. However, influenced by factors such as a warm winter and northern ports' inventory levels stabilizing and increasing, downstream buyers are growing increasingly cautious, leading to a gradual narrowing of market price increases. As of January 14, the CCTD Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Spot Reference Price for 5500K, 5000K, and 4500K specifications closed at 704, 619, and 526 RMB/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0, 1, and 2 RMB/ton.

How will the coal market unfold in the latter half of January?

1. Northern Port Coal Inventories May See Gradual Drawdown

Recently, factors such as shipping restrictions have led to increased inventories at northern ports. As of now, inventories across nine northern ports have risen to approximately 27 million tons, about 2 million tons higher than the same period last year. Looking ahead, traders' enthusiasm for shipping to ports will remain low due to shipping cost inversions. However, as production resumes in mining areas, shipments from mines to ports may increase, potentially boosting coal inflows to northern ports. With shipping restrictions lifted, coal outflows from northern ports are expected to rise. Consequently, northern port inventories may see a gradual drawdown in the latter half of January.

2. End-users show moderate enthusiasm for spot purchases

The latter half of January coincides with the coldest period of winter. However, according to the National Climate Center, temperatures across most regions will be near or above seasonal averages. While residential heating demand is expected to remain high, year-on-year growth is unlikely. Downstream power plants will primarily replenish inventories through long-term contracts, likely continuing to pressure spot prices downward.

3. Coal supply from production areas may remain relatively stable in the short term

Regarding production areas, with one month remaining before the Spring Festival, market sources indicate that the peak period for private coal mines to suspend operations is approaching (approximately 22 days away). Coal supply from production areas is expected to remain relatively stable before month-end. Starting in early February, supply from production areas will begin to contract.

Conclusion

In the latter half of January, supply conditions are expected to remain relatively stable. Coal inventories at northern ports are gradually declining but remain at elevated levels. Downstream buyers may grow increasingly cautious, likely continuing to prioritize price-suppressing spot purchases. Meanwhile, supported by shipping costs, sellers may show limited willingness to reduce prices. Overall, market coal prices are projected to fluctuate within a narrow range.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 16th, the benchmark price of thermal coal according to SunSirs.com was 710.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the beginning of the month (707.50 RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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