Price trend

In 2025, domestic PX prices showed an upward trend, with an average price of 7,108.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and an average price of 7,500 RMB/ton at the end of the year, representing a 5.51% increase over the year. As shown in the PX price trend chart, the highest PX price in 2025 occurred in early March, reaching 7,600 RMB/ton, while the lowest price occurred in mid-May, at 6,600 RMB/ton. Overall, domestic PX prices showed an upward trend.

The domestic PX market in 2025 was mainly divided into four phases:

In the first phase, from January to mid-March, the PX market trended upward. During this period, PX plants experienced traditionally low operating rates, coupled with delayed restarts after pre-holiday maintenance at some companies. Domestic operating rates were only about 80%, resulting in a roughly 5% decrease in production compared to the previous period. PTA companies gradually resumed production after reducing output before the holidays, with operating rates recovering from 65% at the beginning of the year to 78% by the end of March. This increased the rigid demand for PX, supporting higher PX market prices.

The second phase, from mid-March to mid-May, saw a significant decline in PX prices. During this period, international oil prices fell sharply, and naphtha prices followed suit, although they showed some resilience. PX prices passively corrected downwards. From March to May, there were concentrated maintenance shutdowns at PTA plants, reducing the rigid demand for PX and leading to a decline in the PX market.

The third phase, covering the third quarter, saw volatile movements in the PX market. During this period, PX prices followed a pattern of "initial surge, subsequent decline, and then further fluctuations," driven by a combination of wide fluctuations in costs, a marginal easing of supply and demand, weak downstream demand, and shrinking profit margins.

The fourth phase entered the fourth quarter, and the PX market trended upward. During this period, the rebound in crude oil prices and the strengthening of naphtha prices provided stronger cost support; there was no new PX capacity added in 2025, and concentrated maintenance of domestic plants in the fourth quarter led to a decrease in supply; the downstream PTA industry saw new capacity additions, and from October onwards, the PTA industry experienced a concentrated increase in processing fees, leading to an approximately 15% increase in PX procurement volume compared to the previous quarter, thus supporting the upward trend in the PX market.

What will the PX market outlook be in 2026? The driving factors for the PX market in 2026 are as follows:

I. Supply side: Mismatched production schedules + peak maintenance period, leading to a significant supply shortage in the first half of the year.

The new production capacity will be concentrated in the second half of the year, and the supply elasticity in the first half of the year is extremely limited.

In 2026, global PX production capacity is projected to increase by approximately 6.5 million tons.  In China, new capacity additions include 2 million tons from Liaoning Huajin Aramco and approximately 2.6 million tons from Fujia Dahua's expansion, all of which are expected to come online in the second half of the year. There will be no new capacity additions in the first half of the year, and supply will remain tightly balanced.

Operating rates and inventory: High operating rates and low inventory levels support prices.

Domestic PX operating rates remain at a high level of 80%-88%, with existing facilities operating near their capacity limits, resulting in limited supply increases. By the end of 2025, social inventories of PX are expected to be seasonally low, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the first half of 2026, making price increases more likely than decreases.

II. Demand Side: Stable demand for polyester combined with a temporary lull in PTA production provides differentiated support

Increased polyester production capacity is creating sustained demand

Domestic polyester production capacity is projected to increase by 4 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, equivalent to an increase in PX demand of approximately 3.2 million tons. This new capacity is expected to come online primarily in the first three quarters, providing stable and consistent demand support. The easing of US tariff policies and the recovery of demand in Southeast Asia are expected to maintain weaving mill operating rates at 75%-80%, driving polyester inventory replenishment and indirectly supporting PX procurement.

PTA is entering a production lull, and the recovery in processing fees is driving demand for PX

In 2026, there will be no new PTA capacity added, leading to intensified competition among existing players. Processing fees are expected to recover to above 300 RMB/ton, and PTA producers will increase their operating rates, leading to increased demand for PX. In the first half of the year, increased PTA maintenance will keep capacity utilization low, resulting in temporary fluctuations in PX demand, but the long-term underlying demand remains unchanged.

III. Cost Side: Crude Oil Fluctuations + Naphtha Linkage, PX Price Spread Recovery

Crude oil price is the core cost anchor

International crude oil prices are influenced by geopolitical conflicts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which directly impacts the prices of naphtha and PX.

Demand for blending oils and diversion of raw materials

When the North American gasoline crack spread strengthens, increased diversion of aromatics occurs, easing pressure on the PX supply side, and widening the PX price spread; conversely, increased PX supply leads to a narrowing of the price spread.

In summary, the PX market in 2026 is expected to show a "strong in the first half, stable in the second half, and high-level fluctuation" trend.  In the first half of the year, tight supply and demand balance coupled with peak maintenance periods will drive prices higher. In the second half, the commissioning of new capacity and resilient demand will lead to a "tight balance + cost-anchored" high-level fluctuation. The PX price spread will widen first and then narrow, with the overall average price increasing throughout the year.

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