The price of isooctanol fluctuated and declined in 2025

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of December 31st, the price of isooctanol was 6,916.67 RMB/ton, a fluctuating decrease compared to the price of 7,600 RMB/ton on January 1st, representing a drop of 8.99%. The average price of isooctanol in 2025 was 7,249.70 RMB/ton, a decrease of 26.69% compared to the average price of 9,889.58 RMB/ton in 2024, reaching a new low in the past five years. The combination of factors such as overcapacity in isooctanol production, weak downstream demand, and insufficient cost support led to a period of deep adjustment in isooctanol prices in 2025. Isooctanol prices fluctuated downwards throughout 2025.

Analysis of the price trend of isooctanol in 2025

Phase 1: January-February - Isooctanol prices consolidated at high levels. Following the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, restocking led to slight price fluctuations and upward trends.

Phase 2: March-April - Isooctanol prices fluctuated downwards. Due to the off-season for demand, isooctanol manufacturers reduced operating rates, and coupled with falling raw material prices, isooctanol prices experienced a downward trend.

Phase 3: From May to July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated. Despite overcapacity in the isooctanol industry, maintenance shutdowns at companies such as Luxi Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng led to an operating rate of around 80%, resulting in a tightening of supply and price fluctuations for isooctanol.

Phase 4: From August to October, the price of isooctanol fell rapidly. Due to overcapacity in the isooctanol industry and increased production rates reaching up to 95%, the price of isooctanol plummeted, reaching its lowest point since May 2020.

Phase 5: In November-December, the price of isooctanol rebounded and increased. Isooctanol manufacturers reduced their operating rates to around 70%, leading to a shortage of isooctanol supply and a subsequent price increase.

Supply side: Production capacity was expanding, and the operating rate was under pressure and declining

In 2025, the total domestic production capacity of isooctanol was approximately 3.8 million tons per year, with an additional capacity of about 500,000 tons. This new capacity mainly came from expansion projects of leading companies such as Luxi Chemical (500,000 tons) and Wanhua Chemical (300,000 tons). The operating rate of isooctanol producers fluctuated between 60% and 95% throughout the year, dropping to around 60% in April and recovering to 90% in August-October. The overall operating rate was less than 80%, indicating an overall oversupply of isooctanol.

Demand side: Downstream demand was weak, and substitution was accelerating

Over 90% of isooctanol demand came from the plasticizer industry, with DOP accounting for approximately 70% and environmentally friendly plasticizers such as DOTP accounting for about 20%. In 2025, the operating rate of DOP manufacturers fluctuated between 40% and 65%. The sluggish real estate market had led to a contraction in demand for PVC products, resulting in isooctanol purchases being primarily driven by essential needs, and inventories remaining low.  Stricter environmental policies were accelerating the replacement of DOP with environmentally friendly plasticizers such as DOTP, leading to weak demand for isooctanol.

The price of the raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, leading to a decrease in the cost of isooctanol

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of December 31st, the price of propylene was 5,717.67 RMB/ton, a fluctuating decrease compared to the price of 6,835.75 RMB/ton on January 1st, representing a drop of 16.36%. The fluctuating decline in propylene prices led to a decrease in the cost of isooctanol, weakening cost support and increasing downward pressure on isooctanol prices. In 2025, isooctanol was mostly in a state of slight profit or loss. In October, the price of isooctanol fell below the cost line, resulting in a small loss. With the rebound in isooctanol prices, profits recovered in December.

Market Overview and Outlook

According to the data analyst for isooctanol products at SunSirs, in the short term, during the first quarter of 2026, the combined effects of isooctanol companies replenishing their inventories after the Spring Festival, new isooctanol production capacity coming online, and a decrease in factory operating rates will lead to a tightening of isooctanol supply. Rising propylene prices will also provide upward cost support for isooctanol, resulting in fluctuating but generally rising isooctanol prices in the first quarter. In the long term, the introduction of new isooctanol production capacity and the accelerated exit of outdated capacity due to capacity consolidation may lead to a long-term oversupply of isooctanol, and prices are expected to consolidate at low levels.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.