In 2025, the production capacity of NBR in China will increase slightly, mainly due to the 40,000 tons/year new installation of Alangtai Rubber being put into production in January, while its 30,000 tons/year old unit will be withdrawn in April. The total production capacity of NBR in 2025 is 295,000 tons, with an increase of 3.51%. The estimated supply of NBR in China is expected to reach a historic high.

After a small consumption trough in 2024, the demand for NBR will see a slight increase again in 2025. On the one hand, it is driven by the domestic construction machinery industry and the automotive industry, which in turn drives domestic consumption. On the other hand, downstream enterprises are gradually increasing their overseas demand expansion, further increasing the consumption of NBR. From the perspective of consumption structure, in 2025, the demand for NBR will still be dominated by automotive and industrial seals/hoses, accounting for about 70%, followed by foam/shoe material consumption accounting for 15%, and medical/protective and other consumption accounting for 15%.

The raw material cost of NBR (NBR) accounts for 75-80% (60-65% butadiene, 20-25% acrylonitrile). Affected by raw material prices, the overall cost of NBR will gradually decrease from high to low in 2025. The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2025 will experience oversupply, price decline, and a turning point in the industry, marking a transition from "shortage" to "surplus". In 2025, the price of acrylonitrile opened high and fell low, with an annual average price of approximately 8,726 RMB/ton at ports in East China, a year-on-year decrease of about 6.84%. In 2025, the newly added production capacity of butadiene (about 980,000 tons) far exceeds the downstream demand increment, and the overall price is declining. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of butadiene will drop from 10,800 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year to 7,733 RMB/ton at the end of the year in 2025, with an overall decrease of 28.40%.

In 2025, the NBR market will show a trend of "rising first, then suppressing, and fluctuating downward". From January to mid February, raw material prices rose, and cost supported NBR prices rose to a high point of 17,175 RMB/ton this year; From mid February to early May, the high prices of raw materials fell and demand fell short of expectations, causing the price of NBR to drop to a temporary low of 15,912 RMB/ton; Although demand was weak in May, the price of NBR quickly rebounded to 16,850 RMB/ton after hitting bottom, driven by a significant rebound in butadiene prices; From June to early October, on the one hand, NBR manufacturers carried out maintenance and supply shortages, and on the other hand, the price of raw material butadiene acrylonitrile decreased. The cost of NBR also decreased, and the price of NBR narrowly dropped to 16,600 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.48%; From early October to the end of the year, the maintenance of NBR plants gradually ended, and the supply rebounded. The traditional off-season demand downstream was weak, and the price of NBR once again fell to the lowest of 15,525 RMB/ton this year. At the end of the year, the overall decline was 6.33% compared to the beginning of the year.

Outlook for the NBR Market in 2026

Adequate supply and slow recovery of demand for NBR in 2026

At present, there is no news of the production plan for the new NBR plant in 2026. It is expected that the overall supply of NBR in China will be stable and sufficient by 2026. The overall recovery of demand for NBR in 2026 is slow, mainly driven by the construction machinery and automotive industries. In addition, in 2026, the export growth of NBR is expected to be under pressure due to India's anti-dumping policies, high base, and trade environment disturbances.

The cost of NBR may continue to decline in 2026

Due to low crude oil prices, equipment maintenance, and the release of new production capacity, the raw material butadiene is expected to show a trend of first rising and then falling, and an overall downward trend in 2026; On the one hand, acrylonitrile production capacity continues to expand, and on the other hand, downstream ABS expectations are weak, resulting in a fluctuating downward trend in acrylonitrile prices in 2026. The overall cost of NBR has decreased compared to 2025.

In summary, the NBR market in 2026 will face the reality of weak costs, abundant supply, and slow demand recovery. Against this backdrop, the price center of NBR in 2026 will slightly decrease compared to 2025, and the market will mainly fluctuate downwards throughout the year, with prices fluctuating between 13,500 and 17,000 RMB/ton. The profit margin of enterprises may be squeezed, and industry competition will tend to be more focused on technology and high value-added products.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.