Price trend:

In 2025, the Chinese aniline market showed a general trend of "starting high, falling low, fluctuating at a low level, and experiencing periodic rebounds," with an average annual price of 9,375 RMB/ton, an average year-end price of 7,945 RMB/ton, a 15.25% decrease for the year, and a price fluctuation range of 8,000-9,400 RMB/ton.

The main driving factors behind price fluctuations

Supply side: The concentrated release of new production capacity in 2025 was the main reason for price pressure. Wanhua Fujian's second phase 360,000 tons/year aniline plant started production on March 31st. Although it was operating at a low capacity initially, it had a significant impact on market sentiment. At the same time, the overall industry operating rate remained at a high level of 78-86%, indicating continued supply pressure.

Cost side: Fluctuations in benzene prices directly affect aniline costs. In 2025, benzene prices fluctuated between 5,300 and 7,900 RMB/ton, with an average price of 6,459 RMB/ton from January to September, a decrease of 22.26% compared to the average price in 2024. The significant drop in benzene prices provided downward pressure on aniline prices but also limited the extent of any price rebound.

Demand side: Weak downstream MDI demand was the fundamental reason for the price pressure. Affected by the continued downturn in the real estate market, demand for MDI in the building insulation and furniture sectors decreased. The MDI operating rate had fallen from its high level at the beginning of the year to around 62%, directly impacting the demand for aniline.

Unexpected events: International incidents had a pulsed impact on prices. In the second quarter of 2025, an explosion at BASF's Ludwigshafen plant caused aniline prices to briefly rebound to $1,480/ton, a 41% increase. In March, the Red Sea shipping crisis led to a 25% increase in aniline freight costs on the Asia-Europe route, resulting in an 18% increase in price volatility. Although the impact of these external events was short-lived, they amplified price fluctuations.

Aniline Market Outlook and Forecast for 2026

Price Trend Forecast: Aniline prices are expected to fluctuate between 8,000 and 10,,000 RMB/ton in 2026, with the average price showing a slight increase of 5-8% compared to 2025. The main reasons for this forecast are: firstly, a slowdown in capacity growth, with only 25,000 tons of new capacity expected in 2026 (from the Inner Mongolia Ziguang Chemical project), far less than the 540,000 tons in 2025; secondly, stronger cost support, as crude oil prices stabilize and rebound, benzene prices are expected to recover, providing cost support for aniline prices; and thirdly, a gradual recovery in demand, as the real estate market bottoms out and stabilizes and downstream restocking demand is released, demand for major downstream products such as MDI is expected to stop declining and begin to recover.

Supply and Demand Forecast: In 2026, the supply-demand imbalance in the Chinese aniline market is expected to ease, but pressure will still remain. Annual production is projected to be approximately 4.2 million tons, with demand at around 4 million tons, resulting in a supply deficit of approximately 200,000 tons, a significant reduction compared to the 350,000-ton deficit in 2025. On the supply side, the pace of capacity expansion will slow significantly as outdated capacity is gradually phased out and companies invest more rationally. On the demand side, downstream demand is expected to recover moderately, driven by stable growth policies.

Overall, the Chinese aniline market in 2026 is expected to show a trend of "steady growth with increasing differentiation." Looking ahead to 2026, the main factors affecting the aniline market will still be concentrated on supply and demand and cost changes. Market prices may show a trend of initial weakness followed by strength, with the average annual price expected to fall slightly compared to 2025. From the supply side, Nanjing Chemical's 300,000 tons/year and Fujian Wanhua's 360,000 tons/year aniline plants are expected to come online in 2026, which will increase the supply of aniline. From the demand side, the growth rate of downstream MDI is slowing down, but demand for additives is increasing. The overall demand growth rate may be lower than the supply growth rate, and export variables will remain a key indicator affecting market prices.

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