Cyclohexanone Market Review in 2025
In 2025, the domestic cyclohexanone market experienced significant downward pressure and volatility.
According to data from SunSirs' monitoring system, cyclohexanone prices in Shandong province showed a clear downward trend in 2025. At the beginning of the year, cyclohexanone prices were relatively high, around 8,800 RMB/ton. However, due to changes in market supply and demand, prices gradually fluctuated downwards. In the second quarter, the price of cyclohexanone experienced a significant decline, falling from 8,212 RMB/ton on April 1st to 7,250 RMB/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 11.72%. By the end of the year, the price had fallen to 6,350 RMB/ton, representing a 27.84% decrease for the year.
Analysis of Factors Influencing the Cyclohexanone Market in 2025
1. Supply and demand dynamics: Abundant supply vs. weak demand
Supply side
In 2025, the cyclohexanone industry continued to see increased production capacity. This expansion, coupled with stable production from existing companies, led to a continuous supply of cyclohexanone to the market. However, the new capacity did not create effective differentiation in the market, instead exacerbating the pressure of homogeneous supply.
Demand side
In 2025, downstream industries such as synthetic fibers and pharmaceuticals primarily relied on essential purchases of cyclohexanone. Downstream integrated projects reduced their external procurement needs, and industries like caprolactam increased their self-sufficiency, leading to a disruption in the transmission of demand in the cyclohexanone market. This supply-demand imbalance became the core driving force behind price declines.
2. Cost transmission: Weak raw material prices were dragging down overall prices.
With benzene as a core raw material, the market in 2025 experienced volatile downward trends, with prices falling significantly during periods such as April, weakening the cost support for cyclohexanone. Although benzene may experience short-term rebounds in some periods, the overall trend of weak cost support remains unchanged. This narrowed the cost control and price negotiation space for cyclohexanone companies, and the ineffective cost transmission further suppressed market prices.
Cyclohexanone Market Outlook for 2026: Market Evolution Under Multidimensional Variables
1. Supply and demand landscape: Production capacity is increasing slowly, while demand is yet to pick up.
Supply and production capacity/output
It is projected that domestic cyclohexanone production capacity will continue to grow in 2026, but at a slower pace. Companies will focus more on improving capacity utilization rates. Leading companies, leveraging their scale and technological advantages, may consolidate their market position through capacity optimization; small and medium-sized enterprises, facing cost and environmental pressures, will experience limited capacity expansion. Production will increase slightly in line with capacity adjustments, but the oversupply situation is unlikely to be fundamentally reversed.
Demand side
In 2025, demand growth from traditional downstream industries for cyclohexanone was weak, while demand from sectors such as pharmaceuticals and pesticides will remain stable. In 2026, emerging fields such as new energy materials are expected to become a highlight, with demand for cyclohexanone from areas like lithium batteries and solar cell auxiliary materials potentially showing marginal improvement, although this is unlikely to translate into significant volume growth in the short term. Overall demand recovery will be slow, the supply-demand balance will remain volatile, and surplus pressure will persist.
Imports and Exports: The competition between domestic and international markets is intensifying.
Regarding exports
In 2024, cyclohexanone exports totaled 74,300 tons. From January to November 2025, cyclohexanone exports reached 88,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%. In 2026, cyclohexanone exports are expected to continue to increase slightly. Global demand for chemical products is diverging; developing countries have potential demand for cyclohexanone due to industrial upgrading, but export growth is limited by trade policies and freight rate fluctuations. At the same time, domestic companies need to cope with competition from international counterparts, seeking breakthroughs in price and quality, with high-value-added products potentially becoming a key driver for export growth.
Regarding imports:
From 2018 to 2023, China's cyclohexanone imports fluctuated and decreased as domestic production capacity expanded. In 2024, cyclohexanone imports totaled 196 tons. In 2025, China's cyclohexanone imports increased significantly; from January to November, imports reached 535.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 173%. It is expected that cyclohexanone imports will continue to rise in 2026, with high-quality overseas production potentially filling gaps in domestic demand for high-purity and special-grade cyclohexanone, creating differentiated competition in the domestic market and forcing local companies to upgrade their technology. While the overall import and export pattern is unlikely to change the dominance of the domestic market, external shocks will also affect the pace of price fluctuations.
Price forecast: Volatile correction, range trading
In 2026, cyclohexanone prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost line and be influenced by marginal changes in supply and demand, making a sustained one-way trend unlikely. On the cost side, if the benzene market experiences a temporary rebound due to refining adjustments and fluctuations in international oil prices, it will support cyclohexanone prices. On the supply and demand side, if downstream demand recovers more strongly than expected (e.g., due to increased demand in the new energy sector), it could alleviate the oversupply pressure and lead to a price recovery. However, against the backdrop of oversupply and weak demand recovery, prices are likely to fluctuate within the 6000-7500 RMB/ton range. In extreme cases, prices may temporarily break out of this range due to unforeseen factors (such as concentrated plant maintenance or sharp fluctuations in raw material prices), but this is unlikely to be sustained.
Conclusion: Opportunities and challenges coexist; the focus should be on structural upgrading
The cyclohexanone market will remain in an adjustment cycle in 2026. Companies need to focus on technological upgrades (such as green production and high-end product development) and supply chain collaboration (securing downstream partners and optimizing raw material procurement) to address multi-dimensional challenges related to supply and demand, costs, and imports/exports. Although a substantial price rebound is unlikely in the short term, the emergence of new demand and accelerated industry consolidation will build momentum for healthy long-term development. High-quality companies are expected to seize opportunities amidst the fluctuations and reshape the market landscape.
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