According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, there will be a temporary supply shortage of feed raw materials in 2025, supported by multiple favorable factors such as improved terminal demand and rising futures, resulting in a comprehensive rise in the feed raw material market. Among them, corn has the largest increase, exceeding 10%; Soybean meal followed closely, rising by over 9%; Rapeseed meal is the lowest, with an increase of over 8%.

Review of Feed Raw Material Market in 2025

The corn market for the whole year of 2025 presents a "sustained upward trend in the first half of the year, a mid year surge and decline, and a mild rebound at the end of the year"

At the beginning of the year, the average price of corn market was 2,037 RMB/ton; At the end of the year, the average price of corn market was 2,250 RMB/ton, an increase of 10.45%.

First half of the year: Continuously rising, up 15.71%. The temporary tight supply (low inventory of aged grains+ import contraction), coupled with the temporary recovery of feed demand, has driven prices to continue to rise.

From July to October, there was a surge and a decline of 9.18%. The new season of corn is concentrated on the market, releasing supply pressure. At the same time, the reduction of pig production capacity has led to weak demand for feed, and the market has shifted from "supply shortage" to "temporary surplus".

November December: Moderate rebound, up 4.79%. Starting from November, with the acceleration of grassroots grain sales progress and the decrease in surplus grain, coupled with the demand for replenishment from deep processing enterprises and the expectation of policy stabilization, corn prices have slightly rebounded.

The soybean meal market in 2025 presents a "sharp rise at the beginning of the year, fluctuating and falling back in the middle of the year, and a mild rebound at the end of the year"

At the beginning of the year, the average market price of soybean meal was 2,866 RMB/ton; At the end of the year, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,126 RMB/ton, an increase of 9.07%.

January February 10th: Rapid uptrend period, up 35.1%. The expected reduction in soybean production in South America, coupled with delayed soybean imports at the beginning of the year, has led to a temporary shortage in soybean meal supply; The demand for animal feed is rapidly recovering, and the tight supply and demand directly push up prices to the peak of the year.

February 10th to May: a period of volatile decline, with a drop of 22.17%. The domestic import of soybeans to ports has increased, alleviating the shortage of raw materials in oil factories and reducing the pressure on soybean meal supply; The inventory of live pigs has increased month on month, and the improvement in feed demand has supported a brief rebound in prices.

June October: a period of shock recovery, with a rise of 3.04%. During the growth period of South American soybeans, prices rose in the external market. Due to the continuous increase in imported soybean quantities, there is ample supply of soybean meal; Pigs have entered a period of overcapacity reduction, with weak demand and loose supply and demand. The price of soybean meal is under pressure to rise.

November December: Mild rebound period, 2.63%. The seasonal contraction of imported soybean arrivals has led to a decrease in soybean meal inventory in oil factories; The breeding end has entered the stocking cycle, supported by rigid demand at the end, and the market is showing a phased rebound.

The rapeseed meal market in 2025 presents a trend of "rapid increase at the beginning of the year, oscillation in the middle of the year, decline in the third quarter, and rebound at the end of the year"

At the beginning of the year, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 2,285 RMB/ton; At the end of the year, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 2,471 RMB/ton, an increase of 8.17%.

January to March: Rapid surge period, up 14.52%. The import volume of rapeseed from the supply side is relatively low, and the source of meal is tight; The enthusiasm for replenishing pig and poultry pens has increased, and the demand for animal feed has concentrated and rebounded. The tight supply and demand have directly pushed up prices.

April to August: a period of volatile adjustment, with an increase of 0.77%. The tight supply of raw materials has eased; The inventory of meat and poultry remains high, and the demand for rapeseed meal for feeding still has support, resulting in a weak balance between supply and demand.

September October 27th: Deep decline period, down 7.73%. New season rapeseed is being launched in a concentrated manner, with processing enterprises operating at full capacity and a significant increase in the supply of meal products; The production capacity of live pigs has entered a cycle of elimination, and the demand for feed is weak. Under the dual pressure, prices are rapidly weakening.

October 28th December: A mild rebound period, with a rise of 0.54%. The surplus grain of rapeseed at the grassroots level has been exhausted, and the supply of raw materials has been tightened; At the end of the year, the breeding end entered the stocking cycle, and the marginal recovery of feed demand was driven by the sentiment of traders replenishing inventory, leading to price recovery.

Will the feed raw material market continue to rise in 2026, despite the overall increase in 2025? Let's take a fundamental look.

Supply side

Corn production situation: Since 2018, China's corn production has been continuously increasing, thanks to the improvement of yield and optimization of planting technology, the domestic corn supply capacity has steadily strengthened. Among them, the production in 2018 was 257 million tons, and remained stable at 261 million tons from 2019 to 2020; Starting from 2021, the production has been increasing year by year, gradually rising from 273 million tons to 301 million tons by 2025. In 2026, with the support of national policies, corn production is expected to reach a new high, exceeding 300 million tons.

Soybean meal raw material soybean import situation: Since 2018, the amount of imported soybeans has repeatedly reached new highs, and in 2020, it exceeded 100 million tons. Affected by trade policies, the quantity of imported soybeans in 2022 has significantly decreased to 91 million tons. Since 2023, soybean imports have returned to high levels. By 2024, it will reach 105 million tons. It is estimated to reach 106 million tons by 2025. In 2026, the import volume of soybeans will continue to remain high, exceeding 100 million tons.

Import situation of rapeseed meal raw material: Since 2018, the import quantity of rapeseed has continued to decline. In 2022, it will drop to 1.96 million tons. In 2023, the import quantity of rapeseed returned to a high level, reaching 5.49 million tons, an increase of 180% year-on-year. In 2024, the import quantity of rapeseed will continue to increase, with a year-on-year increase of 16%. Due to the impact of China Canada tariff policies, the import volume of domestic rapeseed will significantly decline by 2025, estimated to be only around 2.5 million tons. The uncertainty of tariff policies will result in low domestic rapeseed imports in 2026.

Demand side

Domestic feed production situation: In 2018, due to the impact of African swine fever, feed production experienced a significant decline and remained at a low level of only 240 million tons. Since 2019, domestic feed production has been continuously increasing. From 2021 to 2024, the domestic feed production will remain at a high level, with a continuous output of 320 million tons. The estimated domestic feed production for 2025 is 331 million tons. The overall situation of the feed industry is that production continues to grow, but the growth rate slows down. In 2026, domestic feed production will still be around 330 million tons.

Domestic pig inventory situation: In 2018, African swine fever hit and the pig inventory began to decline. In 2019, China's pig inventory reached 310 million heads, the lowest in history. Since 2020, the number of live pigs in stock has begun to recover and increase, with a slight decline of about 427 million heads in 2024. By 2025, there will be an overall increase, with an estimated 436 million live pigs in stock. The number of live pigs in stock is expected to remain around 430 million by 2026, with a low possibility of significant growth.

Finally, let's take a look at how the feed raw material market will change in 2026. The supply of raw materials will be loose, the terminal breeding industry will reduce production capacity, and the growth rate of feed demand will slow down. It may be difficult for the feed sector to replicate the growth in 2025 in 2026. The varieties of feed raw materials are all futures, which are not only affected by their own supply and demand, but also by external factors. In addition, imported raw materials such as corn, soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed have a significant impact on corn soybean meal and rapeseed meal.

According to the agricultural product analyst of SunSirs, in terms of feed raw material supply in 2026, domestic corn production will continue to steadily increase, global soybean production will be the main focus, and the amount of imported soybeans in China will remain high. The uncertainty of trade policies will lead to a decrease in the import volume of rapeseed in China. In terms of demand, the growth rate of feed production is stabilizing, and the breeding industry is reducing production capacity cycles, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of pig inventory.

In 2026, the supply pressure of the feed sector remains, and the fundamentals are still dominated by negative factors. The corn, soybean, and rapeseed meal market is unlikely to continue to rise, and the overall trend may be weaker than in 2025, mainly oscillating downward.

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