In 2025, the soybean meal market experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, followed by narrow oscillations in the second half, with the overall market mainly rising. At the beginning of the year, the average market price of soybean meal was 2,866 RMB/ton. On December 25th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,102 RMB/ton, an increase of 8.23%.

External support has led to a tightening of imported soybeans as raw materials. After New Year's Day, soybean meal experienced a significant increase, with prices rising all the way to the highest price of 3,872 RMB/ton for the year. Starting from mid February, the price of soybean meal continued to decline, dropping to around 3,200 RMB/ton. In April, the raw material soybean was supported, and the terminal demand improved. The soybean meal market experienced a second round of rise, returning to 3,400 RMB/ton. After the sharp rise, it still experienced a decline, falling to the end of May, and the market average price fell to 3,000 RMB/ton. Throughout the second half of the year, supply and demand were weak, and the foreign futures market fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal market continued to narrow between 2,900-3,100 RMB/ton.

Let's take a look below. Can the soybean meal market continue to rise in 2026?

Supply side: The import of raw materials for soybeans continues to increase, from over 80 million tons in 2018 to 100 million tons in 2020. In 2021, the import of soybeans also reached 96.52 million tons, but declined slightly in 2022 and remained at 91.08 million tons. In 2023, the import of soybeans easily exceeded 90 million tons, and in 2024, the import of soybeans reached 105 million tons, setting a new historical high. The estimated import of soybeans in 2025 is expected to exceed that of 2024.

In recent years, imported soybeans have continued to rise. According to shipping schedule statistics, the estimated arrival volume of imported soybeans from January to March 2026 is around 16.2 million tons. Raw material imported soybeans in 2026 will still be at a high level, which will to some extent hinder the rise of soybean meal market.

Inventory: In the first quarter of 2025, soybean meal inventory was around 500,000 tons. Due to the impact of tariff policies, soybean meal inventory hit a historic low in late March and fell below 200,000 tons in mid May. Starting from June, soybean meal inventory continued to rise, reaching 1.25 million tons in mid September. In late September, soybean meal inventory gradually declined and remained at the 1 million ton level until the end of December. The overall soybean meal inventory in 2025 is at a high level, except for the decline in imported soybeans to the port, which fell to the lowest point, the rest of the time is at a high level, suppressing the soybean meal market.

In 2026, supply pressure remains high and soybean meal inventory remains high. Except for holidays such as February, May, and October, most domestic soybean oil plants will shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the amount of raw materials arriving at the port. Soybean meal inventory in soybean oil plants is at a relatively low level. In other months, soybean meal inventory in soybean oil plants remains high, and the impact of soybean meal inventory on the market is still mainly negative.

Futures: In 2025, the soybean meal futures market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations throughout the year, with overall fluctuations being relatively small. The factors that affect the soybean meal futures market are mainly the combined effects of global soybean supply, imported soybean arrivals, soybean meal inventory, and terminal feed demand. The trend of soybean meal futures market in 2025 is basically similar to that of spot market, and the fluctuation range of spot market is significantly larger than that of futures market.

In 2026, the trend of soybean meal futures market will continue to rise and fall seasonally, with overall low-level oscillation. If there is no extreme weather, the oscillation range of soybean meal futures market will still be between 2,650-3,100 RMB/ton.

Demand: Starting from 2018, the domestic industrial feed production has been continuously increasing, from 240 million tons to around 320 million tons by 2024. By 2025, the domestic industrial feed production is expected to exceed 330 million tons. The main raw materials for feed are corn and soybean meal, with soybean meal accounting for a high proportion. The increase in industrial feed production, supported by rigid demand, has provided a bottom for the soybean meal market. In 2026, industrial feed production will continue to remain high, but the growth rate has slowed down, which has limited support for the soybean meal market.

The soybean meal analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in 2026, the pressure on raw material supply will still exist, and the soybean meal inventory dilemma will be difficult to get rid of. The supply will continue to be loose, and the supporting effect of terminal feed demand is not obvious. The boosting effect of futures market is average. Overall, it is difficult for the soybean meal market to break through the sluggish trend in 2026, with weak oscillation as the main trend, and the price range is between 2,700-3,200 RMB/ton.

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