From January to October 2025, Europe's LNG imports surged nearly 30% to a record high, driven by the need to replace Russian pipeline gas and strategic restocking. Meanwhile, Asia (particularly China and India) saw total imports decline by approximately 7% amid economic slowdown, domestic gas substitution, and high-price suppression, reflecting weak demand. 2025 revealed a “East-West divergence” characterized by robust European restocking and sluggish Asian demand. Looking ahead to 2026, this pattern will enter a new phase of dynamic adjustment as European sanctions intensify and demand recovers in some Asian nations.

China's Import Slump Weakens Asian Market Demand

Statistics show that from January to October 2025, major Asian consumers—Japan, China, South Korea, and India—imported a combined 166.0486 million tons of LNG, down 6.75% year-on-year. While Japan and South Korea maintained stable levels compared to last year, China's LNG imports plunged 15.69% year-on-year, and India's imports also declined by 10.8%.

China's LNG imports plunged by 15.69% to 53.4527 million tons. Weak economic activity dragged down industrial gas demand. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing PMI index remained below the boom-bust line for eight consecutive months from April to November 2025, indicating a slow manufacturing recovery. Meanwhile, the National Climate Center forecasts that this winter's temperatures in China will be near to above normal, though with pronounced seasonal fluctuations and significant temperature swings. Relatively warmer temperatures have also dampened heating gas demand. Additionally, China's domestic natural gas production increased by 6.33% year-on-year to 238.76 billion cubic meters during the same period, while pipeline gas imports rose by 7.52% to 68.218 billion cubic meters. Strong supply from other sources has also dampened China's spot LNG procurement.

India's natural gas demand declined amid a relatively mild summer in the first half of 2025 and rising spot LNG prices. From January to October this year, India's gas demand fell 7.2% year-on-year to 57 billion cubic meters. During the same period, India's LNG imports dropped 10.8% year-on-year to 28 billion cubic meters. Despite sustained LNG price declines since August 2025 and significant reductions relative to 2024 levels since September, Indian demand has not surged substantially.

European LNG Imports Hit Record High

Statistics show European LNG imports surged 28.7% year-on-year to 96.819 million metric tons from January to November. The suspension of Russian pipeline gas supplies to Ukraine at the beginning of the year spurred Europe to increase LNG imports. Since April, rising European demand, reduced pipeline gas imports, and increased storage injections have pushed European LNG prices above Asian benchmark levels, in turn stimulating spot LNG flows into Europe. The International Energy Agency forecasts that European LNG imports will hit a record high in 2025, growing by 26% year-on-year.

2026 LNG Demand Adjustments in Eurasian Markets

Despite U.S. efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, the EU is urgently advancing its phase-out of Russian fossil fuels. Under its 19th sanctions package against Russia, the EU agreed to ban Russian LNG imports, with short-term contracts to cease by April 25, 2026, and long-term contracts by January 1, 2027. Additionally, the EU mandated that the ban on short-term pipeline gas imports take effect from June 17, 2026, while pipeline contracts under long-term agreements must conclude by September 30, 2027. This reduction in supply will drive Europe to rely more heavily on LNG from other international sources.

Meanwhile, in the Asian market, China's apparent gas consumption is projected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year in 2026, supported by the deepening of the “dual carbon” strategy goals, the development of new power systems, and the rigid demands of urbanization and environmental protection. However, considering the diversification of sources such as domestic production, imported pipeline gas, and long-term LNG contracts, fluctuations in LNG imports are expected to be limited. India is projected to see a 6% increase in natural gas consumption by 2026, driven by the ongoing expansion of its city gas distribution (CGD) and compressed natural gas (CNG) refueling station networks, increased industrial gas usage, and rising electricity demand. Furthermore, with at least 3.6 million tons of long-term contracts set to commence in 2026, India is poised to become the primary driver of increased LNG imports in the Asian market.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 23rd, the SunSirs benchmark price for liquefied natural gas was 3552.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 12.81% compared to the beginning of the month (4074.00 RMB/ton).

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