Price trend:

According to data from SunSirs' nickel price monitoring, nickel prices fluctuated last week, initially falling before rising. By the end of the week, the spot nickel price was 120,416.67 RMB/ton, a 2.37% increase compared to the beginning of the week, but a 3.5% decrease year-on-year.

According to the weekly price fluctuation chart from SunSirs, over the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen for 6 weeks and risen for 6 weeks, showing a slight upward trend recently.

Market Analysis

Macroeconomic factors: After the release of the US November employment data, market sentiment quickly turned optimistic. While 64,000 new jobs were added, exceeding expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021. Market expectations of interest rate cuts in 2026 are driving up metal prices, as lower borrowing costs are expected to stimulate the economy and boost demand for metals.

In terms of news: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the nickel ore production proposed in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is expected to be approximately 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons production target in the 2025 RKAB. APNI also disclosed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the calculation formula for the benchmark price of nickel commodities (HPM) in early 2026. According to APNI, one of the key aspects of this revision is that the government will begin to price nickel co-products (such as cobalt) as independent minerals and levy royalties on them.

Supply side: From January to October 2025, Indonesia's nickel production increased significantly by 16.7% year-on-year. In recent years, Indonesia has attracted substantial investment through its "downstream development" strategy, accelerating the establishment of smelting capacity and continuously releasing increased supply to the global market. The domestic market also showed a trend of capacity expansion, with refined nickel production increasing by as much as 21.8% year-on-year during the same period.

In terms of demand: the downstream stainless steel spot market saw improved trading activity.  Total stainless steel inventory in major markets nationwide was 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55%. Looking at the new energy industry chain, raw material prices were dragged down by falling nickel prices and the approaching year-end, leading to further downward pressure on average prices. At the same time, demand weakened marginally, resulting in a month-on-month decrease in the production of ternary precursors in December.

Market Outlook

In summary, the strategic downward revision of Indonesia's nickel production targets signals a potential reduction in global nickel supply. While this may help optimize the global supply structure and provide a floor for nickel prices in the medium to long term, the short-term market will continue to fluctuate based on the impact of policy implementation, supply-demand rebalancing, and macroeconomic variables. A volatile but generally upward trend in nickel prices is expected.

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