Price trend:

The domestic acetone market continued its downward trend, hitting a new low for the year. According to data monitored by SunSirs, the average price of acetone nationwide fell from 4,227 RMB/ton on December 1st to 4,087 RMB/ton on December 19th, a decrease of 3.31%. In the East China acetone market, the negotiated price was 4,050 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1,800 RMB/ton compared to 5,867 RMB/ton in the same period of 2024, representing a drop of 30.34%. As of December 19, holders were facing inventory pressure and weak market sentiment, leading to gradual price reductions. Low demand from end-users had resulted in transactions being concentrated in the lower price range, and some traders were offering discounts to offload inventory, further driving down market prices.

Market Analysis

Supply and demand dynamics: Domestic production cuts and increased imports were creating a balance, but inventory pressure still remained.

Supply side: Domestic production contracted but imports compensated: The operating rate of domestic phenol and acetone plants was less than 80%, which was a relatively low level compared to previous periods. Although domestic supply decreased year-on-year, the volume of acetone imported into East China in December reached 50,000 tons, of which 26,000 tons already arrived and 24,000 tons were in transit. Port inventories remained stable at 24,000 tons, effectively filling the gap left by the reduction in domestic production. Overall supply did not experience any substantial shortage.

Demand side: Primarily driven by essential needs, with insufficient willingness to restock: Downstream industries such as bisphenol A, isopropanol, MMA (methyl methacrylate), and MIBK (methyl isobutyl ketone) were mainly purchasing based on immediate needs, with limited active restocking. The MIBK market, in particular, was experiencing intensified supply-demand imbalances, with prices already down by 300 RMB/ton compared to November, leading to strong pressure from downstream buyers to lower acetone prices. Although the bisphenol A industry had some restocking needs in December, their acetone purchases remained at a need-based level, failing to provide effective demand support.

The prices of raw materials, benzene and propylene, continued to weaken.

Since 2025, the price of benzene has fallen by over 25% year-on-year, and the price of propylene dropped below 6,000 RMB/ton at the end of October, reaching a new low for the year. This significantly weakened the cost support for phenol and acetone production. This "weak support" from the cost side meant that manufacturers lacked the motivation to raise prices and may instead resort to price reductions to alleviate losses.

Traders lacked confidence in the future market outlook: on the one hand, they were worried that inventories would further increase after the arrival of imported shipments; on the other hand, they anticipated that downstream demand would be difficult to recover in the short term. Therefore, they tended to adopt a "quick in, quick out" strategy to reduce risks. Meanwhile, end-users, driven by the "buy on the rise, not on the fall" mentality, were postponing their purchasing plans, waiting for price stabilization signals, thus creating a negative cycle of "price decline - demand stagnation - inventory accumulation - further price decline."

The following were the acetone price quotations from major markets across China on December 19th:

Market Outlook

SunSirs expects that the spot price of acetone in East China will fluctuate within the range of 4,050-4,100 RMB/ton, likely showing a trend of "narrow fluctuations and a slight downward shift in the center of gravity." Firstly, supply-side pressure is increasing: the operating rate of domestic phenol-acetone plants is expected to increase slightly, coupled with the arrival of 20,000 tons of imported cargo, which may increase port inventory from 24,000 tons to 28,000-30,000 tons, further highlighting the loose supply situation. Secondly, demand is unlikely to improve: the operating rate of the bisphenol A industry is expected to decrease slightly, while the operating rates of the MMA and MIBK industries will remain stable, and the solvent industry will purchase on demand. Overall, the demand side lacks growth and is unable to absorb the supply pressure. Thirdly, cost support is limited: the raw material benzene and propylene markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the phenol-acetone industry is still in a loss-making state. The cost side is unlikely to provide effective support for acetone prices, and the resistance to price decline mainly comes from the reluctance of traders to sell at the low prices.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.