Price trend:
According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, from December 12th to 19th, the domestic price of BDO remained at 7,537 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the previous week and a decrease of 13.45% compared to the same period last year. The domestic BDO market remained in a stalemate, with both supply and demand increasing, intensifying the supply-demand conflict and leading to price fluctuations within a range.
Market Analysis
On the supply side, regarding production facilities, the third phase of Lanshan Tunhe has restarted, and Yanchang Petroleum's facilities are operating at increased capacity. However, the maintenance of facilities at Sichuan Tianhua, Shaanxi Heimao, and Chongqing Jianfeng continues. Other facilities are operating relatively stably. The supply of BDO in the market has increased, weakening the support from the supply side. The BDO supply side was bearish for the market.
Statistics on the operating status of equipment at some manufacturing companies:
|
Regions |
Device dynamics |
|
Yanchang oil |
The load of the device is 50% |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant is stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases are running steadily |
|
Yongying, Sichuan |
It will be overhauled on November 11, 2025, and is tentatively scheduled to end December |
|
Sichuan Tianhua |
Overhaul from December 4, 2025 to late December |
|
Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe |
The first phase was parked on August 27, 2024. The second phase is running stably, the third phase was changed on December 8, restarted on December 15, and is currently running stably |
|
Chongqing Jianfeng |
25 days of maintenance from December 8, 2025 |
|
Shaanxi Heimao |
Overhaul on December 5, 2025, expected to be 20 days |
In terms of costs, for calcium carbide (a raw material): the calcium carbide market is showing a downward trend. Regarding supply, due to orderly power usage policies in Inner Mongolia and short-term maintenance at some enterprises in Wuhai, the stability of calcium carbide production has decreased, resulting in a slight contraction in supply. For methanol (another raw material): domestic methanol prices are weakly declining. As of 10:00 AM on December 19th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang was 2,150 RMB/ton. The downward trend in calcium carbide prices and the potential for rising methanol prices present a mixed picture for BDO production costs.
On the demand side, downstream PBT production has increased, while other industries have seen no significant changes, leading to increased consumption of raw materials. However, due to cost pressures, companies are still maintaining contract-based purchasing, and spot trading remains sluggish with limited price negotiation. The impact from BDO demand is mixed.
Market Forecast:
With supply increasing and demand decreasing, negotiations and market fluctuations are expected to continue, making it difficult for the market to stabilize. Some production facilities are operating at higher capacity, leading to an increase in supply. According to SunSirs’BDO analyst, the domestic BDO market is expected to remain largely unchanged.
If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.
